Government unlikely to push forward with amnesty law

However, because it wanted to please the red-shirts, the government had to act as if it was serious in pushing for the enactment.

As part of efforts to please red-shirt people, who are now losing their patience, Deputy House Speaker Charoen Jankomol invited representatives from 11 sides to discuss the amnesty law enactment. The 11 sides are 1) the coalition and the Pheu Thai, 2) the Democrats, 3) the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship, 4) the People’s Alliance for Democracy, 5) Nicha Thuwatham, representing government officials killed during political turbulence, 6) the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand, 7) the Pitak Siam group, 8) business operators affected by political violence, 9) the military, 10) the multicoloured-shirt group, and 11) the Bhum Jai Thai Party.

However, only representatives of groups on the government’s side attended the meeting, with the others announcing a boycott and vowing to campaign both inside and outside Parliament to oppose the amnesty law enactment.

Worse still for the government, Charoen’s move provided a common cause against the red shirts, with the PAD, Pitak Siam and Democrat supporters reuniting against efforts to enact the law.

The red-shirt movement stepped up pressure on the government by having a group of Pheu Thai MPs, led by red-shirt Worachai Hema, sponsor a new amnesty bill last week.

Thus the government faces a dilemma. If it pushes for enactment of the law, yellow-shirt people will come out to protest and they could be met with violent confrontations. Figures from the recent Bangkok governor election show that there are more than 1 million red-shirt people or Pheu Thai supporters in Bangkok.

The confrontations would not bode well for the government. Violence and blood spilling could result in the government being ousted so it need to take care to avoid such a situation.

The coalition has now distanced itself from Worachai’s move by having whips come out to say that the move was Worachai’s personal action, not the coalition’ stand.’

In the meantime, Charoen himself apparently lacks clear determination to push for a solution and ha even promised to hold talks with Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

It is expected that the government will buy time by having the Council of State continue to study the three drafts of amnesty law earlier submitted. This will show to the red shirts that the government has not abandoned them, thus giving the coalition more breathing time.