Peace talks may not last much longer

The BRN’s sincerity in holding the talks has been repeatedly questioned, while the Thai officials were seen to have been weak in allowed the BRN to get the upper hand in initial meetings.
Just two weeks after the third round of talks, a similar situation has occurred – this time the Thai side appears to have been forced to abort the talks.
The third round of talks was held in an amicable atmosphere. It seemed the meeting made the most progress so far as both sides agreed to reduce violence during the month of Ramadan, which starts in early July. The Thai side agreed to stop hunting insurgents during the period while the BRN promised to reduce attacks. Both sides agreed to present operational plans to each other by last Monday.
But on Monday morning, the BRN asked for a postponement till yesterday. On Monday evening, BRN representative Hassan Talib released a video clip, raising new demands for the Thai side to comply with.
He said: “The BRN resolved to halt military operations throughout Ramadan as agreed with the Thai government representatives on June 13 in Kuala Lumpur, provided the following conditions are met:
1. Soldiers and rangers from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Army areas, as well as police officers are withdrawn from the “Patani” area, which covers three southernmost provinces and five districts in Songkhla;
2. Soldiers and rangers must move out of villages in “Patani” and only stay in their camps;
3. Police and patrols need to leave villages in “Patani”;
4. Muslim soldiers should be granted leave during Ramadan;
5. There should be no military attacks, raids, sieges or arrests of insurgent suspects;
6.The government is not allowed to hold any social functions or activities related to Ramadan. Also the government should impose a ban on the sale of alcohol, keep night-entertainment venues closed and promote virtue during the holy month.
Hassan demanded that the above conditions be endorsed by the Thai prime minister, and be announced by July 3.
“Peace negotiations will not happen if the Thai side does not comply with the six points of demand, which must also be ratified by the Thai Parliament. In addition, the peace talks must be set as a national agenda and there will be no more secret talks. The head of the Thai representatives must have official and permanent status for holding the talks,” he said.
Observers said it appeared the BRN was seeking to corner the Thai side and trying to show it had an advantage at the negotiating table – but everybody knew all of these demands would not be met. Troops would not be withdrawn and road checkpoints would not be stopped because there were no guarantees violence by insurgents would not reoccur. So far, the BRN had failed to show that it could control insurgent groups by ordering a stop to attacks. Violence had not subsided at all.
So, it was impossible for the issue to be sent to Parliament and for future talks to be official. The prime minister would never sign an order to enforce such conditions. Doing so would be tantamount to upgrading the BRN’s status to a government of the separatists, and this could be cited by the BRN to fight for separation of the deep South. Worse still, nothing like this could be achieved by July 3.
In the ‘Godfather’ movie, Don Corleone always made proposals that could not be denied. But Hassan has gained a reputation for making proposals that cannot be accepted, which has raised questions as to why he has done this. Some analysts believe he may not be able to control insurgent groups so he is using this tactic to end the negotiations while saving face. He would be able to claim it was the Thai government that rejected the proposals.
The question now is, should the Thai side try to keep the talks alive or should it merely try to end the talks with the least damage?