Defiant Sam Rainsy can still rock Hun Sen's boat

If both sides can steer smoothly through the entire five-year electoral term, Cambodian politics might begin to resemble the system in the UK and the US, where two major rivals take turns running the country. 

So far, no country in Southeast Asia has developed such a political system.

Unofficial results indicated that the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won 68 seats while the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) took 55 seats in the parliament.

The constitution empowers the winner, in this case the CPP, to form the government. 

The CPP has enough seats to form the government on its own and make Hun Sen prime minister for another term if he wishes. 

That would leave Sam Rainsy’s CNRP as the opposition – and it would be the strongest opposition Cambodia has ever had.

However Hun Sen and the CPP’s ability to govern would not proceed as smoothly as it had previously. Sam Rainsy opened the game immediately after the poll, rejecting the result of the election, in which he claimed to have had more success that was reflected in the results initially announced. 

The CNRP’s real intention behind this move remained unclear – but it could delay the inauguration of the parliament and formation of the new government. The constitution requires the first session of parliament to convene within 60 days after an election. Sam Rainsy demanded at least one month to scrutinise for election irregularities.

Hun Sen and the CPP had a similar experience in 2003 when the CPP failed to win a two-thirds majority for the formation of a new government. 

After a long negotiation and through other means, Hun Sen managed to get the royalist Funcinpec to join a coalition government – but that happened a year after the 2003 election. This time there is no third party available for the CPP to use in order to isolate Sam Rainsy.

Luckily for Hun Sen, the constitution was amended in 2006 to require only an absolute majority for the formation of the government – but a legal technicality remains. Some Cambodian legal experts said the parliament session requires the presence of two-thirds of its members for a quorum. The constitution identifies two types of quorums; two-thirds for votes requiring a two-thirds majority; and over half for votes requiring simple majorities.

These kinds of difficulties in the parliament could emerge now, as Sam Rainsy can do many things to rock Hun Sen’s boat. With 55 seats, CNRP members can vote against the removal and suspension of parliamentary immunity of members (Article 80); request calls for extraordinary sessions of Parliament (Article 83); call for a closed Parliament session (Article 88); invite high-ranking officials to clarify key issues (Article 89); request the deliberation of a motion of censure to dismiss any members of the Cabinet (Article 98); and request the king, the president of parliament or the prime minister to revise or amend the constitution (Article 151) – but a two-thirds majority vote is required to pass such a revision or amendment.

It really comes down to Hun Sen’s patience whether, and for how long, he is willing to play by the rules.