
Who will benefit from this law?
Article 3 of the bill says people in cases related to political movements, such as street protests and riots between September 19, 2006 and May 10, 2011, will be granted amnesty, except for those who were in decision-making positions or leaders. But key questions are who exactly were the decision-makers or leaders? Is former premier Thaksin Shinawatra in this category? And what about cases committed by the People’s Alliance for Democracy and Pitak Siam Group, before and after these dates?
The timeline of May 10, 2011 is, in fact, the end of the government under Abhisit Vejjajiva. How could people charged with political protest and riot during this government benefit from the law? However the current government has indicated that the timeline could be modified.
How could Thaksin benefit from this?
If Thaksin was regarded as someone who was not a decision-maker during the protests, he would be granted amnesty. However, the law covers only the terrorism charge he faces, not Thaksin’s corruption case, Ratchadapisek land case and the confiscation of Bt46 billion of his assets. Thaksin would really benefit only if these big cases were covered by the law. The bill that could really help Thakin would be a reconciliation law which grants amnesty to all across-the-board.
How wide is the difference between the amnesty and reconciliation laws?
The amnesty law covers only political actions, such as demonstrations and related acts. The reconciliation law covers all politically motivated cases that took place after the 2006 coup. To be explicit, the reconciliation law could whitewash every action after the coup and Thaksin would be off the hook if this law undermines the legal basis under which he was charged and convicted.
Could the two bills be merged?
Both Worachai Hema, who sponsored the amnesty bill, and Samart Kaewmeechai, who chairs the vetting committee, have said the two bills cannot be merged because they are based on different principles. However, opponents fear the committee, majority controlled by the ruling party, could eventually merge them, as the two bills share some similar principles on granting amnesty.
Would lese majeste convictions be included?
No. Worachai, who proposed the amnesty bill, said lese majeste is a civil crime, not a political one.
How long will the procedure take and what is the timeline for the amnesty bill?
If it sails smoothly enough, the government and opposition could compromise. The bill could then become law by the end of this year.
If the road is obstructed due to strong opposition objections, the bill may take time to be passed. Indeed, many obstacles lie ahead, as the opposition could mobilise forces both in and outside of Parliament to derail it. The Constitutional Court could be asked to consider whether the bill contravenes the charter as it contains elements of unequal treatment and conflicts of interest.
Some red-shirt lawmakers such as Kokaew Pikulthong and Payap Panket, who were charged on terrorism counts, would directly benefit from the bill if it passes into law.