Govt caught in maze of its own making

Pressure from across the country is constantly growing against the government since it pushed the controversial bill to grant blanket amnesty to all offenders, including those convicted of or facing corruption charges since 2004. 

The fate of the bill will be clear today when the Senate holds deliberations. Here is a look at the some of the possible scenarios and their implications for the country in the next few days: 

In the first likely scenario, if the Senate votes to reject the bill on the first reading, it may not really calm the situation, as the protesters do not believe the bill will be surely dropped. The protesters are now escalating the rally with the aim of ousting the Yingluck Shinawatra government. However, a rejection of the bill would mean the red shirts detained in prison will lose the opportunity to be freed. 

This solution is seen as just a break or a time-buying strategy of the government. The huge rallies could restart 180 days after the Senate returns the bill to the House. The bill could be reaffirmed by the House, where Pheu Thai has a majority. 

A better solution would be for the Senate to vote for the bill on its first reading and set up a committee to amend the bill by following the original version proposed by Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema. That bill grants amnesty to people of all political affiliations between September 19, 2006 and May 10, 2011 with the exception of protest leaders and those in authority. The Senate could speed up the process by passing the bill in three readings today. 

In order to speed up the bill’s passage, when the amended bill is returned, the House should approve the change. In that case, there would be no need to set up a joint committee to delay the passage. 

On the plus side, if the bill is passed, the Pheu Thai Party and the government would regain the support of red-shirt protesters and relatives of the victims of the 2010 political violence as the detained reds can be freed from prison. 

However, this solution will be totally useless for fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who wants to return to Thailand. It would shut the door on Thaksin to be granted amnesty for his two-year-jail sentence and to recover the Bt46 billion seized from him. It is unlikely the ruling Pheu Thai Party will propose such a bill later to whitewash the cases against one man.

Another option will be for the Senate to vote to deem the bill a financial law. The bill would be returned to the House. The House Speaker then calls a meeting with 35 chairmen of House committees to treat the bill as a financial law. When the House returns the bill to the prime minister, it will be dropped if the PM fails to endorse it. 

This solution will surely kill the bill without waiting for the 180-day period. However, it entails risks for Yingluck as protesters or her political opponents could pin responsibility on the prime minister. 

One option by which the government can show its sincerity would be to withdraw the original bill proposed by Worachai. As the draft owner, Worachai can propose to the House to withdraw his bill. This will lead to the bill being dropped immediately if the House votes for the proposal. This could calm down the protesters, as some of them came out on the streets only to oppose the bill.

The last scenario, but the least likely, will be the government opting to go ahead with Prayuth Siripanich’s blanket amnesty version if they are pushed into a corner. This option would need the Senate’s cooperation to pass the bill. It is unlikely the Senate would give its backing. 

This will be a risky game for the ruling Pheu Thai Party. While it may allow Thaksin to return home a free man, it is hard to imagine the fallout. If the government settles for this option, a House dissolution could be inevitable.