Suthep's call for 1 million protesters may not be what it seems

Suthep, who resigned as a Democrat MP to lead the protest and who has been camping at Democracy Monument for two weeks, surprised many with the ambitious announcement on the anticipated number of protesters.

Many people wondered why Suthep dared to make such a claim when the number of protesters had been on the decline after the government retreated from its earlier plan to push for enactment of the amnesty bill. The government has done everything possible to show that it has given up the amnesty effort, leaving groups of protesters lacking a common cause to fight for.

The amnesty bill was killed very quickly, leaving Suthep lacking enough time to rally his demonstrators to protest against other causes. Moreover, middle-class people, who form the main army for the fight, were already happy that the government had retreated. They were not ready to join the fight to topple the government yet.

And when Suthep announced measures of civil disobedience, such as a work stoppage and the boycotting of goods and services of the Shinawatra family, people balked. The number of demonstrators sharply decreased because many disagreed with the measures and saw Suthep as having overplayed the situation.

Also, coining slogans about trying to topple the “Thaksin regime” only confused people. The idea of a Thaksin regime is rather abstract; people are unsure about how it could be eradicated. In other words, the protest leaders could not convey their feelings about the issue in such a way that the demonstrators could visualise them.

So why did Suthep announce he would bring one million protesters to join the rally? 

Is it possible he said so because he was seeking an excuse to end the protest? In fact, his time to lead the protest is running out. The parliamentary session will expire at the end of this month and all Thais are looking forward to celebrating His Majesty the King’s birthday on December 5. Suthep will have to end the rally earlier than that, or at least vacate Rajdamnoen Road for the celebrations to be prepared.

Party sources said the Democrats have accepted the reality that the chance to win with this demonstration is almost zero. They knew that the number of protesters would never amount to one million. So, this may provide a legitimate excuse for Suthep to end the rally and turn to other more effective issues to fight for.

Anyway, Democrat leaders are still keeping their fingers crossed that the censure debate will be a turning point that stirs more people to join in the protest – while at the same time hoping that the censure debate itself will not be allowed, rather than wishing for it to proceed. 

For this reason, the Democrats used the tactic of refraining to comply with the rules – they declined to state the allegations against the two censured targets, the prime minister and the interior minister.

The Democrats are trying the same tactic they used in the censure debate last year. 

Unlike last year, this time it appears the Pheu Thai Party will not allow the censure debate to go ahead if the Democrats decline to state the allegations. Pheu Thai has given a deadline for the Democrats to submit more documents related to the allegations by 4.30pm todayThursday.

If the censure motion is not put on the agenda because the Democrats decline to comply with the rules, the Democrats will be happy. 

The action will announce to the public that the government would not allow the opposition to hold a censure debate.

The Democrats hope that this point will prompt a lot of people to turn out for their demonstration.

It remains to be seen whether Pheu Thai will dash the Democrats’ hopes by compromising on the censure debate once again.