Suthep is in danger of overplaying his hand

Now that the court has delivered a decision unfavourable to the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the government, it is quite certain that the red shirts will intensify their activities.

On the other side, former Democrat MP Suthep Thaugsuban has called on a million anti-government protesters to come to Democracy Monument on Rajdamnoen Road in Bangkok on Sunday, saying this will be judgement day on whether Thailand will be able to get rid of the “Thaksin regime”. 

“Eradication of the Thaksin Regime” is the discourse used to mobilise protesters both in Bangkok and the provinces to show the government that a large number of people reject it and its ties to fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra. 

Actually, Suthep’s announcement last Friday marked the second time he had attempted to step up the rally. The first time, his call for “civil disobedience”, including a strike, was not so successful – especially when compared with the initial mass protests targeted solely at the blanket-amnesty bill, which drew people from all walks of life.

This time, Suthep had a higher goal – one that was much harder to achieve – of bringing a million people to join in the rally, including government officials, who were asked to stop work to attend. Such an invitation, however, had the opposite of the desired effect, making government officials reluctant to join in. 

While some of the Pheu Thai Party’s rank-and-file members urged it to push ahead with the problematic amnesty bill, the government adopted a strategy of maintaining silence. Doing so has only added fuel to the fire. 

The massive and nationwide protests against the amnesty bill showed that Pheu Thai underestimated the extent of opposition to the bill. Even de facto leader Thaksin did not think the Democrats would be able to mobilise people. Mobilisation via social media only drew more people. 

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who rarely gives press conferences, did so twice on state television channels to tell the public that the government was retracting the legislation. Until then, she had been silent, refusing to answer questions about the controversial bill. 

Although Pheu Thai tried to say that the blanket amnesty bill had nothing to do with Thaksin, the people observed the government’s behaviour, considered it, and chose not to believe the claim. In a desperate attempt to salvage the government’s stability, the coalition parties finally gathered and promised not to push further for the bill. 

When the government’s popularity slips, Suthep – who is now an ex-MP – takes the chance to attack the government. Now he will certainly use the court’s ruling to hit it harder. 

Nevertheless, Suthep will have to work much harder, as the political temperature has fallen since the amnesty bill was withdrawn. 

If Pheu Thai and the government take any wrong step, the people will come out – regardless of Suthep’s efforts.

Failing this, Suthep should reconsider and end his rally soon, before his perseverance begins to look like stubbornness, and backfires.