
The key protest leader, Suthep Thaugsuban, has announced that he is aiming beyond a House dissolution and the PM’s resignation. He plans to change the ruling system to one he prefers.
The question now is whether the country’s problems would really end if Suthep gets what he wants. Campaigns like this have happened before and on several occasions the protesters have won – but eventually nobody is ever the complete winner.
Looking at Suthep’s strategies, it appears that he wants events to bring Thailand to an impasse. He does not want the House to be dissolved, but he wants many MPs and senators to be indicted so they can’t do their duties.
At the same time, he is organising protests to disrupt the administration, leading to a failed-state situation.
Suthep has in mind a people’s assembly with representatives from various walks of life to draft rules, establishing new groups to closely monitor the power of politicians. Simply put, Suthep wants independent agencies to oversee the government’s work at every step.
Under such circumstances, the government will not be able to use its power freely and will be under the control of individuals who choose members of the monitoring agencies.
This would lead to one crucial question: what will this assembly be based on? This is crucial because such an assembly would be like a post-coup national assembly.
Moreover, we have the House and Senate; and a Constitution that clearly states how laws must be drafted and enacted and put into force. However, such an assembly can be formed only if the current charter is annulled. There are only a few ways to do that, and they would take longer than the three days Suthep has declared.
Suthep should also not forget that not all members of society agree with his ideas. He must take note there are red-shirt people who disagree with him, and their number could be equal to that of his supporters. So far, the red shirts have been told not to come out in large numbers to avoid confrontation.
But if Suthep’s group were to try toppling the government through undemocratic means, the red shirts would definitely come out to fight – leading to conflict like the 2010 demonstrations.
Some say that if Suthep continues his demonstration to pressure the government, it could lead to a civil war.
It is undeniable the government has reached an impasse and lost legitimacy to run the country.
But the protesters are also destroying their own legitimacy more and more by violating the laws.