Prayut and military may have misjudged US reaction

“He did not come to see me because they know where I come from,” Prayut told reporters when asked if he was scheduled to see Russel, who is the highest-ranking US official to visit Thailand since the May 22 coup.

That’s right. General Prayut became Prime Minister of Thailand because he staged a military coup d’etat to topple the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra. The lawmakers whom he picked for the National Legislative Assembly voted him into the government’s top job.

Initially, Prayut would have anticipated some reaction from Washington about his coup – but apparently expected the US would turn a blind eye to what he did if he could offer “something of interest” to the Obama administration.

The Americans can comment on Thai politics as long as economic relations remain as usual. The junta chief Prayut might be right on this point. Economic relations between Thailand and the US have continued. No economic sanctions have been imposed, so far. The strongest action the US took to directly react to the coup was to freeze military assistance – but the amount was too little to affect the Thai armed forces.

However, the thing which Prime Minister Prayut – as the leader of Thailand – must do is to study the whole breadth of relations between Thailand and the US, in a regional context.

Prayut and his advisers have so far misread the international political landscape and felt that Washington badly needed Thailand as a strategic ally to balance China in its Asia-Pacific pivot policy. As many senior officials at the Foreign Ministry love to say, “We are cleaning our house. It is not the business of outsiders, as long as mutual (economic) interests are not affected.”

But that reading is too shallow. His advisers in the military went too far in thinking that if Bangkok showed a leaning towards Beijing, Washington would rush to please the government with a favour to keep Thailand’s support.

Thailand’s foreign policy did, in fact, lean toward China – but that has not stopped Washington from criticising our internal politics. Could something have gone wrong?

Thailand, from Washington’s perspective, has been politically set back due to its internal conflict. It is a tradition for countries in the West to employ political means in accordance with democratic norms to settle such a conflict. For them, military means are appropriate for security matters, not politics.

Russel sent a very clear message when he addressed Chulalongkorn University on Monday. “Our relationship with Thailand has been challenged and affected by the military coup that removed a democratically-elected government eight months ago,” he said.

A few sentences from his speech can tell the story. He said: “For decades, the US has worked with Asia-Pacific allies, and even more since the end of the Cold War, with partners like members of Asean to advance security, prosperity, and democracy throughout the region.

“Together, we’ve built a regional architecture and institutions to strengthen rule of law. This architecture has helped keep the peace in the region, and many nations have taken advantage of the space provided by peace to develop, both politically and economically,” he said.

Keys words in this address are democracy and rule of law. Thailand, over past years, has reigned supreme in the region for democracy and the rule of law. With collaboration from the US, leaders in Bangkok worked hard for progress and development in neighbouring Myanmar.

Myanmar made a significant change in recent years, but to the Americans’ disappointment Thailand has gone backwards. The military, which faced a serious challenge from non-traditional security threats, natural disaster and terrorists, wasted time with work it has never been keen on – politics.

What is to be done to mend relations? US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki underlined Russel’s visit by saying “Our relationship with Thailand cannot return to normal until democracy is re-established.”

But one thing needs to be kept in mind – nobody is telling Prayut to employ “American democracy” if he wants to restore relations with Washington.