Looming issues could soon shape the political landscape
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IN LESS than one month, it will become clear whether Thailand will be able to head to the next general election - as the tentative date to vote on the new charter draft has been set at September 7.
The Nation earlier conducted a survey asking some of 249 National Reform Council (NRC) members whether they would vote for or against the charter draft.
The result was only 21 NRC members, who are concurrently members of the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC), showed signs of approval – as most NRC members polled by us have yet to make a decision.
In fact, there are still several controversial issues likely to shape the new landscape of Thai politics and they will be key factors in the NRC’s decision. Those issues, if not resolved, could cause the draft to be rejected.
Apart from allowing a non-elected MP to become prime minister or an “outsider” PM, the makeup of the Senate, another crucial issue is the new provision that imposes a lifetime ban from politics on certain individuals.
Under the provision, certain people would face a lifetime ban from running in any general election:
Those whose assets have been seized under a court order because of their “unusual wealth”;
Those convicted by a court for malfeasance or being involved in election fraud;
Those impeached for any of four offences – unusual wealth, performing duties dishonestly, malfeasance in the bureaucracy, and misconduct in the justice system.
Dubbed “political execution”, the provision will directly affect the future of the Pheu Thai Party, whose former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has been impeached already by the military-appointed legislature for dereliction of duty over her government’s rice-pledging scheme. She is now serving a five-year ban from politics.
The former premier is also facing a criminal case trial in the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders related to the same controversial scheme. A ruling in this case, which could end up with her serving 10 years in jail if found guilty, may be handed down soon.
Yingluck is likely to be barred from running in the next election if the junta road map continues as planned, as she is currently serving a ban. But she could return as a candidate for prime minister with Pheu Thai after the ban ends in January 2020.
Having considered the letter of the law, it remains unclear whether Yingluck could be banned for life as she has been impeached for dereliction of duty.
The CDC last week reportedly discussed the spirit of the law in the clause and highlighted Yingluck’s case.
It said the CDC members agreed that Yingluck could escape the “execution” as the offence was not corruption.
So, when she completes serving her five-year ban she would be able to return to politics. However, some members deny that they have discussed such an eventuality.
Until now, no CDC member has clearly discussed the ex-premier’s political future. A review by the Constitutional Court might be needed to have the final say in the future.
However, the controversial provision has some significance for both Pheu Thai and the junta.
On one hand, the lifetime ban penalty was seen as an attempt to totally eliminate the Thaksin regime.
The former PM, who was stripped of half his fortune for abuse of power by a court order, is already disqualified. His sister could face the same fate.
If the draft is passed with the “ban for life penalty” still operating, it would definitely be a big blow for the former ruling party, which lacks a suitable person to head the party in the future. It could lead to disarray and might be a fatal blow to Pheu Thai.
And this could be significant proof for the junta to show the public that the coup in May 2014 was not wasted. The CDC said the provisions were intended to be in line with the interim Constitution to eliminate corrupt politicians from politics forever.
But don’t forget: not only does the charter draft need to succeed in a vote by the NRC – it must also be endorsed via a national referendum.
And remember who won the majority in the four previous elections...
But the kicker is, if the draft is voted down, the Prayut government will remain in power longer stated in its road map.
