Slump in exports ‘worse than expected’ amid low oil prices
EXPORTS are now expected to contract by 5.5 per cent to US$215 billion this year, worse than the previous projection of a 3-per-cent decline, due to the continued slide in oil prices in the world market.
This the third straight year of backsliding, but for next year, the Commerce Ministry is looking for a return to the growth path. Its 2016 forecast is for a 5-per-cent increase to $225 billion, reflecting the brighter picture for global trading, which is expected to bounce back from a shrinkage of 11.2 per cent to an expansion of 2.4 per cent.
The ministry reported that in the first 11 months of this year, shipments were off 5.5 per cent to $197.27 billion (Bt6.61 trillion), while imports declined 11.2 per cent to $187.04 billion.
In November alone, exports were down 7.4 per cent to $17.16 billion, while imports fell 9.5 per cent to $16.86 billion. Thailand locked in a trade surplus of $10.23 billion in the first 11 months, after adding $298 million last month.
“Oil and products from oil account for more than 10 per cent of total export value. Expected continuing falling oil prices will still be a risk factor for Thai exports next year,” Somkiat Triratpan, director of the Commerce Ministry’s Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said Monday.
