Tropical storm warnings for South Florida as Eta churns northward

Tropical storm warnings have been posted for the Florida Keys and extreme South Florida, including Miami. Warnings are also in effect for the Cayman Islands, the northwest Bahamas and all but western Cuba (which is under a tropical storm watch).

Tropical storm watches expand farther north in South Florida, and include Naples and Cape Coral on the west coast and West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, and Titusville on the east coast.

Significant heavy rainfall and flooding are forecast in South Florida, where the National Hurricane Center predicts rainfall of 5 to 10 inches or more. Tropical-storm-storm force winds are also possible by Sunday night into Monday when the storm center makes its closest approach.

"Flooding is one of the greatest potential impacts from #Eta," tweeted the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. "This risk should increase this weekend into early next week due to periods of heavy rainfall."

In South Florida, as well as the Florida Keys, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is also possible in coastal areas Sunday into Monday.

At 10 a.m. Saturday, the center of Eta was located 45 miles west-northwest of Grand Cayman on the Cayman Islands. Maximum winds were around 40 mph as the system barreled northeastward at 17 mph.

Still somewhat disheveled, the Hurricane Center noted the one-time Category 4 hurricane was becoming "a little better organized" Saturday morning. Currently, most of the heavy rainfall is found east of the center, the storm still rather lopsided.

After 3 to 6 inches on Friday, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service was calling for a broad 6 to 10 inches Saturday with a few more on Sunday. Some locales could approach 20 inches total. The group was also predicting "torrential rain and intermittent thunderstorms."

Rain was just beginning to arrive along the south coast of central Cuba early Saturday, the precipitation set to increase in coverage and intensity late day and into the overnight. Bands of heavy downpours should last through the morning hours on Sunday, a widespread 5 to 10 inches falling with localized totals of 25 inches.

Sancti Spritus, Santa Clara, Morón, and Camaguey could all find themselves along the axis of heaviest rainfall.

Occasional rain showers, some heavy, are possible in South Florida throughout the weekend as Eta's moisture is drawn northward.

Overnight Sunday into Monday, Eta is expected to slip north of Cuba and curl westward. That will yank it up the Florida Straits, likely over the Florida Keys before it meanders into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The heaviest rain is likely to fall east of its track.

In South Florida and the Keys, a general 5 to 10 inches of rain is likely, with a few totals up to 15 inches. The bulk of it falls Sunday night through Monday, but intermittent, scattered downpours are possible starting Saturday and may linger into early Wednesday. A flood watch has been hoisted for the region until late Tuesday, a stalled cold front likely to help focus Eta's downpours.

Miami's 2020 rainfall is running 14 inches above average to date after persistent heavy rains soaked the area. Nearly a foot fell in October, the ground saturated and more prone to flooding.

Eventually, Eta will track north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but its future is highly uncertain. It appears unlikely to become a hurricane, since cooler waters and a disruptive change of wind speed and/or direction with height known as "wind shear" will serve as obstacles.

What remains of the system may get drawn into the northern Gulf Coast during the second half of the next week and ingested into a cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S.