Is anyone thinking about future of cities?

Between 2005 and 2010, the urbanised proportion of the world’s population overtook the rural proportion by 51 per cent to 49 per cent. By 2030, projections estimate the world’s population living in urban settings will be 60 per cent, and 93 per cent of that growth will occur in developing countries. China is expected to show the greatest increase in the number of cities with more than one million inhabitants, from 90 cities at present to 220 by 2025. Rapid economic development has encouraged rural inhabitants to migrate to urban centres to improve their salaries, economic opportunities, job options, competitive possibilities and access to cultural, financial, commercial, investment and communication networks. Other factors include inability of households to sustain livelihoods in rural areas for economic reasons, interpersonal conflicts, natural disasters or eco-environmental transitions.

Asean statistics range from Singapore, with the highest urbanisation rate of 100 per cent, to Cambodia, with the lowest urbanisation rate of 22 per cent. Thailand is classified as an upper-middle-income economy, according to the World Bank system, with an urbanisation rate of 34 per cent of the total population (2010), and an anticipated annual rate of change of +1.8 per cent. Currently 72 per cent of Thailand’s general public expenditures are being spent in Bangkok, which is home to 17 per cent of the country’s population and produces 26 per cent of the GNP. The Northeast, by contrast, accounts for 34 per cent of the population, but receives only 6 per cent of the expenditures. Thailand’s major developmental challenge is to provide access to more quality public services throughout the Kingdom. Decentralised educational reform would allow for central monitoring while fostering local accountability, spending authority, responsible efficiency and decision-making participation.

Asean urban populations living in coastal deltas, which are highly vulnerable to sea-level rises and surging floods include Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta and Manila. Regarding urban slum populations, Laos and Cambodia rank first and second. The extended Bangkok metropolitan region encompasses the fringes of surrounding provinces, with modernisation featuring profound changes in the way people act, live, commute and work. The capital’s goal should be long-term urban stability, so that national growth becomes more equal and diffused by strengthening rural-urban links.

Charles Frederickson 

Bangkok