Oil falls on September 11 but heads for weekly gain above 8%

Brent and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell on Friday (September 11, 2026), reversing early gains after a Financial Times report of diplomatic efforts to secure a temporary shipping agreement with Iran. Reuters reported that both benchmarks remained on course for weekly gains of more than 8% amid continuing supply disruptions.

Brent settled at US$104.61 a barrel, a fall of US$3.02, or 2.81%, while WTI closed at US$100.05 a barrel, down US$2.43, or 2.37%, Reuters reported. Both benchmarks had touched their highest levels since mid-May earlier in the September 11 session.

Brent and WTI had climbed by more than 6% on September 10 as attacks on Middle East shipping intensified, before traders reassessed those risks on September 11, according to Reuters.

Hormuz talks report reverses early oil gains

The Financial Times reported that Middle Eastern foreign ministers were trying to negotiate a temporary deal with Iran to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters said the prospect of talks had the strongest influence on oil-market sentiment on September 11.

“The things that were causing the panic yesterday are easing today,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said on September 11. “The question is will the market remain calm over the weekend? That’s when things seem to happen.”

“Some headlines of possible new talks in the Middle East are weighing moderately on oil prices today,” UBS energy analyst Giovanni Staunovo said on September 11. “I keep seeing near-term risks to the upside for oil prices, but we should expect ongoing high price volatility too.”

US diesel passes US$6 a gallon as supply tightens

The US national average diesel price rose above US$6 a US gallon for the first time on September 10, according to GasBuddy data reported by Reuters. Oil-supply disruptions caused by the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries had tightened fuel supplies.

“Refined products, particularly diesel, are feeling a one-two punch right now,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said. “As long as both the Gulf shipping constraints and Russian refining outages remain in play, diesel and other refined products are likely to show a higher upside tendency than the broader crude market.”

Commerzbank raised its year-end 2026 Brent crude forecast to US$85 a barrel from US$75, Reuters reported. Commerzbank also increased its diesel forecast to US$1,200 per ton from US$950 and its jet fuel forecast to US$1,230 per ton from US$980.

Two European Central Bank policymakers indicated on September 11 that further interest rate rises could be necessary if war-driven energy costs kept climbing and fed through into other prices in the eurozone, Reuters reported.

Saudi crude supply falls amid pipeline concerns

Saudi Arabia’s crude supply fell by about 2.3 million barrels per day from July to about 6 million barrels per day in August 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s September Oil Market Report, published on September 11. Reuters reported that the agency attributed the decline to attacks on Saudi energy facilities and described supply as the lowest in more than three decades.

Satellite imagery showed smoke near Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline on September 10, Reuters reported. The pipeline provides an alternative route for Saudi crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices remained lower on September 11 even as reports emerged that Iran-affiliated militants had damaged a pumping station.

Referring to Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said: “It’s surprising the oil market remains down in light of reporting that Houthi rebels attacked the East-West Pipeline, which would impact 7 million barrels of crude.”

“Repairing a pumping station would require a lot more than repairing a break in the pipeline,” Lipow said of the reported damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline. “Electrical systems would have to be repaired, the pumping system would need to be repaired.”

Hormuz transits fall to seven on September 10

Seven vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on September 10, down from 11 on September 9, according to preliminary ship-tracking data reported by Reuters on September 11.

Before the Iran war began in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 commodity vessels a day and one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, Reuters reported.

Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on September 9 after the US struck five Iranian oil tankers, Reuters reported. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that its response would escalate if further attacks occurred.

Four Yemeni government sources told Reuters that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reached Perim island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 11. The advance could strengthen Houthi control over another vital shipping route.