Oil gains 1% after Iran vows to retain enriched Uranium
Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz keep oil supply risks in focus, despite recovering Saudi and Iraqi output and hopes of peace talks.
- Oil prices increased by about 1% after Iran's security chief announced the country would not allow its enriched uranium to be moved abroad.
- The statement renewed market concerns about global oil supplies by diminishing hopes for a swift de-escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States.
- This price gain reversed earlier losses that had been prompted by optimism over potential peace talks, which were subsequently denied by an Iranian official.
- The U.S. has insisted that nuclear issues must be part of any negotiations, making Iran's stance on its enriched material a significant obstacle to a potential agreement.
Oil prices recovered from two-month lows on 11 November 2026, rising about 1% after Iran’s security chief ruled out allowing enriched nuclear material to leave the country. The statement renewed concerns over supplies and prospects for an agreement to end the war with the United States.
Brent crude futures closed at US$92.76 a barrel, an increase of US$1.27, or 1.39%. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) finished at US$86.53, up 49 cents, or 0.57%.
Washington has insisted that nuclear issues must be included in any initial negotiations with Tehran aimed at ending the conflict.
“Oil prices are being supported by fading hopes of an imminent de-escalation,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
Oil had initially fallen by more than US$3 a barrel on 10 November after US officials played down the need for additional military strikes against Iran. Some of those losses were subsequently reversed when an Iranian security official denied that talks were taking place between the two countries.
Despite the latest gains, Brent remained about 21% below its level at the start of November, while WTI was down around 17%, following earlier optimism that the war could end.
Hormuz attacks complicate hopes of restoring oil flows
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruption, with Washington Institute for Near East Policy data showing that 37 ships were attacked in October. That was the highest monthly total since the war began in February.
Iranian forces have also attacked ship navigation systems on Oman’s Didamar island in the strait, demonstrating their ability to target infrastructure used to restore Gulf oil shipments.
Simon-Peter Massabni, head of retail sales at XS.com, cautioned that more encouraging diplomatic signals had not removed the operational risks facing shipping.
“More importantly, even if a political agreement is reached, shipping activity is unlikely to return to normal immediately,” Massabni said.
LSEG Oil Research identified several obstacles to restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in a note dated 10 November.
“Even in the event a deal is struck, an increase in flows through the waterway would depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk,” LSEG Oil Research noted.
Saudi and Iraqi production recovers as US inventories rise
Saudi and Iraqi crude production has returned to pre-war levels and is close to the countries’ OPEC+ quotas, according to Kpler data. Disruptions in both countries have fallen significantly, helping reduce Middle Eastern crude and condensate outages to about 3.8 million barrels per day in early November.
Crude production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, rose sharply in October, led by a substantial increase in Saudi Arabian output.
US crude inventories increased by 9 million barrels in the latest week, market sources reported, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.
Official US inventory data is due on 12 November. The release was postponed by one day because of the Veterans Day holiday on 11 November.
Ukraine reports drone strike on Russia’s Ust-Luga port
Ukraine’s military reported that its drones struck Russia’s major Baltic port of Ust-Luga on 11 November, causing a fire and damaging part of the port’s network of storage tanks.
Renewed Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced Russian oil refining capacity by about 30% since late October, according to industry sources.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reported some progress after two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi concluded on 11 November. US mediators, however, described a lack of trust between the two sides and continuing disagreements over major issues, including territory.
Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov pointed to almost five years of war in Ukraine and repeated diplomatic efforts throughout that period.
“This is definitely a situation where we will believe it when we see it,” Molchanov said of the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough.
