UN projects 2026 among four hottest years as COP31 opens
A strengthening El Niño could intensify heat, floods and drought into 2027 as delegates debate emissions cuts and climate finance in Turkey.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects that 2026 will be one of the four hottest years on record, with temperatures averaging 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels.
- This UN assessment was released as the COP31 climate summit opened in Antalya, Turkey, where governments are negotiating emissions reductions and climate finance.
- A powerful El Niño event is a key factor driving the record heat, acting as a "risk multiplier" for extreme weather and threatening to make 2027 even hotter.
- The projection is supported by other climate records set in 2025-2026, including all-time high concentrations of greenhouse gases, ocean temperatures, and global sea levels.
Global temperatures in 2026 are expected to rank among the four highest on record, with a powerful El Niño threatening further heat and extreme weather in 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on 9 November.
The assessment was released as the United Nations COP31 climate summit opened in Antalya, Turkey, bringing governments together to negotiate emissions reductions, the transition to clean energy and financial support for countries facing climate damage.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described El Niño as an additional threat to a planet already experiencing increasingly severe weather.
“We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier,” she said.
Saulo noted that heatwaves, tropical cyclones and heavy rain were intensifying faster than historical conditions had prepared societies to expect.
Temperature, ocean and greenhouse gas records accumulate
The assessment draws on observations spanning January 2025 to September 2026. Its principal findings include:
- Global temperatures: The past 12 years are set to be the hottest 12 recorded. Temperatures averaged 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels between January and September 2026, putting this year among the four warmest.
- El Niño: The current event could become the strongest recorded and continue into 2027, increasing flood risks in some regions and heat, drought and fire risks elsewhere.
- Greenhouse gases: Atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reached record concentrations in 2025. Measurements indicate further increases in 2026.
- Oceans: Global sea levels reached a record high this year, while ocean surface temperatures registered new monthly records.
- Glaciers: Ice lost during 2025 was equivalent to enough water to fill five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second throughout the year.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that generally raises global temperatures. Some scientists expect its influence could help make 2027 the hottest year recorded, although that remains a forecast.
Heat deaths and Himalayan disaster show human costs
Europe’s summer heat was associated with an estimated death toll exceeding 50,000 in urban areas. Researchers consider the figure an underestimate of the wider toll, rather than a complete count of deaths across the continent.
A rock-and-ice avalanche along the Nepal–China border also caused catastrophic destruction and killed more than 1,300 people. Scientists identified warming-related changes to the ice holding mountain slopes together as factors that may have contributed to the disaster.
Flooding in Vietnam and weak monsoon rainfall in India added to the year’s disruption. Such extremes damage food production, undermine livelihoods and deepen poverty.
COP31 faces divisions over fossil fuels and funding
Governments gathering in Antalya are expected to spend the next two weeks discussing how to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and expand clean energy. Negotiations will also address which countries should provide climate finance and how much support should reach those already experiencing severe impacts.
Previous summits have exposed disagreements between governments pressing for stronger action and major oil-producing countries resisting tougher commitments. Outcomes have consequently drawn criticism for falling short of the response required. COP30’s main agreement last year did not explicitly mention fossil fuels.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the combination of human-caused warming and a powerful El Niño as an escalating threat.
“We have entered a new age of climate extremes,” he said.
Guterres urged governments to accelerate emissions cuts, ensure a fair transition away from fossil fuels and provide vulnerable countries with the funding and protection they need.
Source/Images: CNN
