Plan needed to deal with expected labour shortage
In the face of closer economic integration in Southeast Asia and the opening up of Burma's |economy, Thailand may be confronted with a shortage of workers in the longer term.
“What we are concerned about is the flow of |labour that will take place after the market is liberalised [in 2015]. A labour shortage is among our top concerns,” said Sutapa Amornvivat, chief economist at Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre.
All Asean countries were likely to badly need workers, particularly unskilled labour, as the number of planned investment projects would increase.
“These unskilled labourers could flow back to those countries and Thailand could suffer shortages," Sutapa noted.
A number of investment projects expected in these countries, including Burma, would require intensive labour, mostly unskilled, she said.
With Burma is poised to open up its economy, inviting more direct investment and creating more jobs, Thailand may face a shortage of unskilled labour from neighbouring countries. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy had seen human capital development at a certain level for some time and most Thai workers were now doing skilled tasks.
“A number of unskilled labourers in Thailand could shift back to their own countries like Burma, which are about to open their economies,” said Somprawin Manprasert, an assistant professor of Economics at Chulalongkorn University.
After Burma opens its economy, many economists and investors expect a surge in direct investment, particularly labour-intensive industries.
So far, the government had not provided a clear plan in response to a possible shift of unskilled labour, he said. “We may not only need to think about the economy, but also require social development in the country.”
Thailand may need to reposition itself for industries that are closely linked to its workforce, as the United States and Japan did many years ago.
Somprawin cautioned: “If we do not think about it, we may not be able to develop our economy further. Some industries like tuna processing, by nature |need a competitive advantage in labour, mostly unskilled.”
The question facing Thai industry now was: Do we need to retain unskilled labour, or should manufacturing locations be moved to where an unskilled workforce exists?
