Global rice harvest higher this year: FAO
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Thailand's rice exports will come under pressure this year from the global rice harvest, which will likely surpass last year's as consuming countries plant more crops, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
With the prices of competitors far lower, Thailand is expected to see its sales fall sharply, even though the country is expected to retain its status as the leading rice exporter, the FAO said in a report last week.
Countries such as Australia, Cambodia, India, Pakistan and Vietnam should capture larger shares of the rice market as they offer more affordable prices.
This year is expected to surpass the strong showing worldwide last year as the erratic climate conditions caused by the weather phenomenon known as La Nina dissipate and farmers increase their plantings, according to the “Rice Market Monitor”.
World paddy production of 732.3 million tonnes, or 488.2 million tonnes on a milled basis, is an increase of 1.7 per cent or 12.3 million tonnes over its estimate for total production in 2011. Last year’s total was also revised slightly downward in the report.
Asia, where rice is the staple food, will be chiefly responsible for the advances in production. Large absolute gains in output are forecast for Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines and, especially, Thailand, which is recovering from last year’s disastrous floods.
The outlook is also positive in Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, which have already harvested their main 2012 crops.
An increase in plantings by farmers will drive higher output, although more neutral climatic conditions associated with the end of La Nina will be required to support more bountiful harvests. Worldwide, farmers are expected to increase areas under planting for paddy by 1.6 per cent to a total of 165.1 million hectares.
Beyond Asia, harvests should rebound in Africa, led by Mali, Senegal and Nigeria, but fall in the European Union, the United States, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Strong output in Asia also means that the region that consumes the most rice will require fewer imports. The FAO forecasts that the global rice trade will fall by 900 000 tonnes to 34.3 million tonnes, a decline of 2 per cent from the record set in 2011. The decline takes into account an upward revision of 1.5 million tonnes over its initial prediction in January.
Imports are expected to rise in China, Africa, the European Union, North America and Latin America.
Robust production coupled with weaker demand has created downward pressure on international prices, especially after India lifted its ban on regular rice exports.
The FAO lowered its estimate of world paddy output last year by 1.4 million tonnes to a total of 720 million tonnes, or 480.1 million tonnes of milled rice. The new figures still represent an increase of 2.5 per cent, or 17.7 million tonnes, over world output for 2010.
