Further slide in Thai share of world trade seen
Thailand's share of global trading would continue to drop from 1.4 per cent presently to only 1.2-1.3 per cent by year-end as its exports would grow only 3.8-5.8 per cent this year, the slowest since the "Hamburger" crisis in 2009.
“Slower global economic growth started by the EU’s recession will dull worldwide demand, denting Thai exports,” Aat Pisanwanich, director of the International Trade Studies Centre at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said yesterday.
The centre’s study showed that the eurozone crisis would not only directly hit Thailand hard but also soften its exports to five major markets – China, India, Asean, Japan and the United States.
Thailand’s share of the European import market would also shrink to lower than 1 per cent this year, while the EU’s exports would contract by 4.5 per cent. Thailand would face difficulties in achieving the Commerce Ministry’s 15-per-cent growth target.
The forecast for export growth of 3.8-5.8 per cent would translate into US$237.46 billion-$242.18 billion this year, while the ministry’s growth projection would equate to $262 billion.
Exports are expected to drop by 7.5 per cent this quarter. In the best case, exports would grow by only 0.7 per cent, which would be flat, compared with last quarter.
For exports to expand by 15 per cent this year, they would have to average $25.14 billion per month for the rest of the year, against $18.71 billion in the first half.
Due to the severe impact from the EU’s sluggishness, Thai exports to the EU and the other five major destinations this year would decline by $9.44 billion, or 3.5 per cent of total exports.
Thai products that would be seriously hurt from the EU crisis are garments, processed vegetables and fruit, seasonings and sauces, fishery products, cameras, pearls and jewellery, electric appliances and computers, rubber and rubber products, and automobiles and parts.
Exporters should set appropriate prices to penetrate new markets to offset slower sales to the EU and other traditional markets.
Every country has the strategy to focus on new export markets, particularly Asia, Latin America and Africa, so Thai exporters should not fix retail prices too high in order to ensure competitiveness in those new markets.
To increase the competitive edge of Thai exporters, the government should also help reduce production costs, such as by reviewing its minimum wage policy and lowering pledging prices, he added.
