August data shows continued weakening

The Commerce Ministry's preliminary export data in August showed a 6.5 per cent drop from the same period last year, to US$19.75 billion.

Deputy Commerce Minister Poom Sarapol attributed the fall to weaker global demand and falling efficiency in some export-oriented industries.

In the first eight months, export value showed a 1.31 per cent decrease on year to $151.55 billion, while imports expanded 7.63 per cent to $164.66 billion. While August's trade deficit was $1.8 billion, the aggregate deficit in the first eight months of this year went up to $13.1 billion.  

Nomura noted in the special research on Thailand that coupled with strong domestic demand, increasing imports needed for private and public investment should exert downward pressure on the current account balance.  The current account should remain in a surplus near term, at 2 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 3.7 per cent in the first quarter of next year. Then, it should fall into deficit, at 5 per cent of GDP in the second quarter, as a result of the widening trade deficit and tourism seasonality. On a full year basis, it expects the 2013 current account deficit to widen to 1 of GDP (US$3.9 billion) from a 0.5 per cent deficit ($1.7 billion) in 2012.