NFI forecasts 5-15 % increase in food exports
Thailand's food exports are expected to jump 5-10 per cent to Bt1 trillion next year as the effect of the global economic slowdown has already been discounted in the world market, according to the National Food Institute.
Amorn Ngammongkolrat, the NFI’s executive vice president, said yesterday that the country’s food exports would reach between Bt1.03 trillion and Bt1.08 trillion in 2013, up 5-10 per cent from this year.
The forecast is based on global economic growth of 3 per cent, an exchange rate of Bt30 per US dollar and a 5-per-cent rise in food-product prices. However, the global economic recovery will likely remain uncertain, and other negative variables include possible higher production costs and a higher baht after the third round of US quantitative easing.
Positive factors are discounted news on the world economic slowdown that has prompted supply and demand to adjust to cope with the situation, investment stimulus from the upcoming entry into the Asean Economic Community and mild inflationary pressure that limits rises of product prices.
The institute forecasts food exports to inch up 1.6 per cent to Bt980 billion this year, as some export groups have slowed down in the latter half. Its previous target was Bt1 trillion. These groups, which account for 30 per cent of total food exports, are processed shrimp, processed vegetables and fruits, and rice.
Food exports bottomed last quarter and have rebounded this quarter, Amorn said. This quarter is expected to book Bt80 billion in monthly food exports. Products with export capacity include canned seafood, canned fruits and vegetables, seasonings and fresh chicken.
Chukiat Opaswong, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said it expected rice exports to hit 6.5 million tonnes this year after the first nine months saw them dive 32 per cent from the same period of last year to 5 million tonnes worth US$4.4 billion (Bt135 billion). The dip this year was due to the higher price of Thai rice, he said. The freight-on-board price of Thailand’s 5-per-cent white rice stays at $578 per tonne while rice from Vietnam and Pakistan is quoted at $450 per tonne.
Panisuan Jamnarnvej, president of the Thai Frozen Foods Association, said shrimp exports totalled 22,700 tonnes for the first eight months of this year, down 7.3 per cent from the same period a year earlier. By value, exports were off 8.6 per cent to Bt6.7 billion.
Shrimp shipments are expected to expand 5.0-5.5 per cent this quarter thanks to US demand, but for the whole year, shrimp sales abroad will contract 3.5 per cent to Bt106 billion, the association predicts.
