PTT refinery units to produce extra 20,000 tonnes of LPG per month

Geopolitical developments surrounding Iran have led to concern that the price of crude oil could skyrocket in the first quarter of next year.
 However, second- and third-quarter prices could stay below US$100 per barrel because of the worsening European economic situation.
 Next year’s average Dubai crude price is estimated to be $105 per barrel.
 Surong Bulakul, chief finance officer at PTT and chairman of the company’s oil refinery group, yesterday said the refinery units had discussed raising LPG production to meet the Kingdom’s rising fuel demand.
 If the refinery system is improved, about an additional 20,000 of LPG will be produced a month, he said, adding that overall monthly output would be increased to 100,000 tonnes.
 Perawat Tanmarpimonta, vice president of PTT subsidiary IRPC, said next year’s oil prices depended largely on the global economy. Recession in the European Union and the United States could continue in 2013, and the global economy is expected to be driven mainly by Asia and Latin America.
 “Developed countries will likely see 12 per cent lower use of oil to 45.27 million barrels per day. Developing countries are expected to witness a rise in demand for oil by 0.99 per cent to 44.80 million barrels per day. Global demand is expected to increase 0.87 per cent to 90.08 million barrels per day,” Perawat said
 The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has the capacity to produce 30 million barrels a day, while those outside of Opec have a combined daily capacity of 60 million barrels, said Vaslika Hongthongsilapakul, an analyst at PTT.
 This year’s demand for crude has increased by 900,000 barrels per day, while daily demand next year is forecast to rise by 1.2 million barrels.
 Opec is expected to lower its production by 300,000 barrels per day to maintain the oil price at the current level, said the |analyst.
 Non-Opec producers, particularly the US and Canada, will likely increase production thanks to new drilling technology. By 2035, they may not need to import oil and the overall picture of oil trade could then change, he added.
 Next year, a close eye will need to be kept on political factors in a number of countries, particularly after the US and Israeli elections and their leaders’ policies in regard to Iran and the wider Middle East.
 Pongpun Amornvivat, business manager at Thai Oil, another PTT refining unit, said that based on these factors, Dubai crude is expected to stay at $111 per barrel this quarter after likely cold winters in major consumer nations.
 Early next year could see more pressure from the US on Iran over its nuclear ambitions and, if a military conflict were to break out, the oil price would surge, albeit only in the short term, he said.
 In the second and third quarters of next year, oil prices could fall below $100 because of the worsening European economy, while the fourth quarter will see higher prices because of seasonal factors.
 In Thailand, he said next year’s demand for oil would rise by 4 per cent. Demand for diesel will increase by 10 per cent as the government is expected to control the price at no more than Bt30 per litre, while petrol could see demand remain flat or expand by 1 per cent.
 Natural gas for vehicles and LPG, meanwhile, will likely see a 10-per-cent rise in demand, while next year’s end to sales of 91-octane petrol is expected to prompt an increase in the use of E20 gasohol.