Shippers see single-digit export growth next year
The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) projects that exports will experience mediocre growth again next year because of the economic slowdowns of major trade partners, especially China and major countries in the European Union such as Germany and Fran
Paitoon Kaipornsak, a lecturer in economics at Chulalongkorn Univer-sity, said the economics faculty and the TNSC had conducted an export survey last month that found shipments increased by only 0.2 per cent compared with September 2011. This means overall exports in the third quarter plunged by 3.7 per cent compared with the same period last year.
However, exports in the current fourth quarter are expected to surge by 30 per cent year on year. Major products posting increases in shipments include seafood, paper and chicken, while products reporting a decline in exports include footwear, frozen shrimp, furniture and rubber.
“We expect the overall increase in exports for the full year to reach about 4.6 per cent,” Paitoon said. “However, if consumers in our trading partners have greater confidence, especially in the coming Christmas and New Year season, and that leads to better export conditions in the last two months of the year, we expect overall exports from Thailand to do better, at 5.9 per cent over last year.
“We also project that export in the first quarter of next year will be between 5 and 5.5 per cent compared with the first quarter of this year.”
He said next year’s exports would depend on the overall global economic situation, especially of trading partners such as China and the EU.
“We have serious concerns about the tendency of economic slowdown in China. Major strong-economy countries in the EU, especially Germany and France, may face economic slowdowns next year. These negative factors will have an impact on the country’s exports, which will not achieve double-digit growth next year,” he said.
Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the TNSC, said the world’s economy was still fluctuating and economic activity in the EU declining, which resulted in a drop in overall consumer confidence in September.
The economic direction of the United States is unchanged as that country awaits the results of next month’s general election. However, the slowdowns in the US and the EU had an impact on the gross domestic product of China, which reported a slowdown in growth to 7.5 per cent.
Japan next year will import more products from Asean countries as it wants to reduce reliance on China, he said.
