Exports will return as economic driver in 2013
Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) says exports will bounce back to play the role of a key driver of economic growth in 2013, with the positive effect of rising private consumption having peaked this year.
Domestic consumption will slow down next year after the end of spending stimulus measures by the government.
Consumers will now have to repay their mortgages and instalment loans for many years, said the centre.
Meanwhile, private investment is expected to expand slowly next year, because huge investments were seen in the first half of 2012 during the post-flood recovery period.
Wiwan Tharahirunchote, executive chairman of KResearch, said high spending as a result of the government’s measures would increase non-performing loans, but the actual figure would not be worryingly high.
The global economy is expected to recover gradually, especially in China, which will return to stable growth and help drive Thai exports to grow 12.5 per cent worldwide, against just 4 per cent this year, said Pimonwan Mahujchari-yawong, deputy managing director of the research house.
More than 50 per cent of |Thai exports are accounted for by shipments to Asean and China.
Demand and prices for rubber will rebound, helping it to be a sunrise industry next year, said Pimonwan.
However, overall productivity is a challenge for businesses, with Thailand lagging Singapore by six times and Malaysia by 2.2 times in this regard, she said.
Even though the export outlook is bright, businesses should focus more on increasing productivity to achieve sustainable economic growth, she added.
The coming into force of the Asean Economic Community in 2015 will be a powerful economic driver for Thai exports, but companies should also consider emerging markets, such as the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China and the "next eleven" emerging economies, said Pimonwan.
These 11 markets – the Asean countries of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, plus Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Nigeria and Pakistan – are expected to |provide major export opportunities.
Excluding the three Asean nations and South Korea from the list, the other markets account for just 7 per cent of Thai exports, but they have high purchasing power and demand for consumer products and home appliances, which exporters should strive to tap, she added.
KResearch said inflation next year could rise to 3.3 per cent from 3 per cent in 2012 because of the higher wage costs, reduced energy subsidies and the new fuel adjustment tariff, or Ft, rate.
However, such a rise is not seen as a barrier to economic expansion, it said.
