Consumer confidence up in Oct

Vachira Koonthaweethep, deputy director of the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said a survey of 2,252 people nationwide in October found that confidence in the economy had an index level of 69.6, up slightly from 69.2 in September. The confidence index on securing jobs was 73.8, compared with 72.9 in September. Confidence in future income was 97.0 last month, up from 95.5 in September.

The baseline for the CCI is 100, so these figures still represented negative confidence.

However, the index scores were up in all categories, which the centre claims is mainly due to the government’s fourth-quarter stimulus measures. These consist of Bt40 billion in financial aid to farmers and various other investments totalling Bt320 billion.

The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) expects the Thai economy to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2015, in view of the transport infrastructure investments, the lower retail price of gasohol by Bt2 per litre, and Bt0.60-per-litre cheaper diesel, while exports in September rose by 3.2 per cent.  

However, the FPO has lowered its estimate of this year’s economic growth to 1.4 per cent from 2.1 per cent previously. Crop prices are low relative to the same period of last year. The SET Index has dropped slightly, while the baht depreciated, reflecting net foreign-capital outflows. Consumers are still concerned over the rising cost of living and uncertainty over the global economic recovery.  

Meanwhile, 4,445 new industrial plants with combined investment value of Bt469.43 billion were established in the past 10 months, an increase of 9 per cent over the same period last year, said Pasu Loharjun, director-general of the Department of Industrial Works.

Most of the new plants were in metal and metal products, vehicles and components, automotive repairs, wood processing and wood products, and food processing. The largest expansion was in the automotive industry, with investment value of Bt12.3 billion, followed by electricity generation plants (investments ranging from Bt2 billion to Bt6 billion). There were 45 plants with investment value exceeding Bt1 billion, Pasu said.

With measures to expedite government spending, the state expenditures for the first quarter of fiscal year 2015 are projected to be about 35 per cent of the total fiscal budget. The number of new factories is expected to rise by 5-10 per cent, with combined investment value of about Bt500 billion by the end of the 2014 calendar year.

As a New Year gift to business operators, the Ministry of Industry announced that it would exempt the annual fee for factories (Category 2 and 3, totalling about 80,000 factories) as of October 1 until September 30, 2017. The total amount of this annual fee exemption is equivalent to about Bt300 million a year, or Bt900 million for the three-year period.