Ominous signs forecast another sluggish export year
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THE SLUGGISH economies in many countries, shrinking oil prices, and falling crop prices have started to show signs that Thai exports could see low growth or even contraction this year, experts say.
The Commerce Ministry reported that January exports slumped again by 3.46 per cent to US$17.2 billion (Bt560 billion), the lowest value in the past 10 months.
Imports also dropped by 13.33 per cent to $17.7 billion, locking in a trade deficit of $456 million in the first month of the year.
“There is a high possibility that exports this year will decline or expand only slightly mainly because of global economic factors, as well as low oil prices and fluctuating currencies,” said Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies.
He said the centre projected export growth of only 1-2 per cent this year, against the Commerce Ministry’s target of 4 per cent.
Aat said that normally, exports in the first quarter of the year expand strongly, then slow somewhat in the second and third quarters.
Factors at risk of slowing down exports this year are the debt woes in Greece, a slower Chinese economy, and high household debt among Asean countries.
The economic recovery in the United States seems to be a hope for Thailand.
Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers Council, said global currency volatility was expected to be prevalent, and Thai exports would expand by just 1.5 per cent this year.
The TNSC’s prediction is in line with the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 1.4-per-cent export growth this year.
Exports contracted by 0.4 per cent last year.
Despite lower exports last month, the Commerce Ministry has not yet adjusted its full-year target. Chanter Chantira Jimreivat Vivatrat, deputy director-general of the ministry’s International Trade Promotion Department, said the agency would closely monitor all factors that could affect exports this year.
Target stays
“The ministry will not yet revise down the target, as there are still 11 months to boost exports, while many factors could influence Thai exports including crop prices, oil prices, and global economic growth,” she said.
She said the ministry would continue to promote Thai products in all markets including the US, which has shown signs of an economic recovery, and emerging countries, mainly in Asean.
The ministry plans to meet with overseas Thai trade officials from 66 countries on March 16 in Bangkok.
Last month, shipments of agricultural-industry products dropped 13 per cent, while industrial exports grew by a slight 0.6 per cent.
Because of lower oil prices, the value of petroleum exports was down by 28.1 per cent to $656 million, while oil-import value also dropped by 46.86 per cent to $2.72 billion.
