Govt sees positive signs for export
With the weakening baht and the economic recoveries in many countries, Commerce Minister General Chatchai Sarikulya says exports are trending to go into positive territory in June after contracting for four consecutive months this year.
"Thailand’s exports should grow in the remaining months, making the total shipments this year grow by 1.2 per cent as targeted," he said.
Moreover, the ministry’s export strategies should be able drive growth in the third quarter.
Markets with strong economic growth potential are mainly in Asean, especially Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, as well as the United States.
The baht started the year at 32.950 per US dollar before appreciating slightly to Bt32.353 on March 2.
The currency then depreciated to 32.848 on March 12, the day after the Bank of Thailand cut the benchmark interest rate for the first time in a year, and then to 33.018 on April 30, the day after the second rate cut this year. As of 3pm yesterday, it had weakened to 33.741.
Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said last week that the latest depreciation of the baht had provided "encouragement" for the export sector. This past Tuesday, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) commented that exports had shown signs of picking up thanks to the weaker baht.
The JSCCIB said export volume had increased in April while exports to China had increased in value by 1.1 per cent – a first for this year.
Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) expects the baht to be valued at 34-34.5 in the second and third quarters because of the strengthening of the US dollar before appreciating to around 33.8 at the end of the year as the Thai economy recovers. That recovery is expected to be more tangible in the second half.
Kasikorn Research Centre expects the baht to be at 34-34.25 per US dollar at the end of the year.
It also believes that quarter-to-quarter economic expansion in the second half of the year will be better than in the first half, as exports are already stabilising and private-sector confidence is turning positive.
Govt sees positive signs for export recovery as baht weakens
