Consumer confidence further rises in November

"Consumer confidence should increase continuously in the following months if no serious negative factors such as the conflict in the Middle East or terrorism in France have an effect. Domestic factors seem to be influencing a positive consumer outlook for the country’s growth and helping to increase their spending confidence," Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said yesterday.

With better confidence, consumers feel optimistic about spending their money on durable goods and travel, particularly for purchasing a new house or new car, after the government’s measure to lower housing-transfer and mortgage fees.

Consumers will also decide to purchase new cars during the rest of this year, as the excise tax for some vehicles will be increased in 2016.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November rose to 74.6 points from 73.4 in October, echoing more positive prospects for stronger economic growth late this year and in 2016, though still below the 100-point baseline.

Projected GDP?growth

Thanavath said that with rising consumer confidence and spending, gross domestic product this quarter was projected to grow by 3.3 per cent, taking full-year GDP growth to 3-3.1 per cent.

The impact of government’s short-term economic stimulus package should become clear this quarter. Its investment of about Bt50 billion should also help the economy during this final quarter of the year, Thanavath said.

Wachira Kuntaweethep, assistant director of the UTCC, said that based on the 2,242 responses to a survey last month, other confidence indices were also more positive about the economy’s growth potential.

Confidence in future income rose from 68.6 points in October to 69.6 points last month, while confidence in employment opportunity was up from 89.4 to 90.8 points.

Meanwhile, the Chamber’s business survey of 1,201 respondents indicated that people would spend more during the upcoming Father’s Day holiday, reflecting better confidence and a positive outlook on economic growth.

Spending during the long Father’s Day holiday from December 5-7 will increase by 6.23 per cent to Bt13 billion, higher than Bt12.24 billion in the same period last year.

Thanavath said spending would be higher because this will be a long weekend and because of the "Bike for Dad" activity, which many people will join.

He added that people seemed to have a better outlook on economic growth at this time, as normally people’s spending increases by an average of 5 per cent during special occasions, but for the upcoming Father’s Day, spending will increase by more than 6 per cent.