Commerce Ministry forecasts exports to grow up to 3.5%
GIVEN AN expected rise in oil prices, the US Fed’s increase in the policy interest rate and stronger global economic growth, Thai exports next year are forecast to grow by between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent, while inflation will be in a range of 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent, according to a study by the Commerce Ministry’s Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau.
Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the bureau, said the study had concluded that Thai export shipments should grow relatively strongly, as a number of positive factors would influence an economic recovery in many markets, while the price of crude would rise following a better balance between oil supply and demand.
Next year, members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will decrease oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million, while non-Opec producers will cut output by 300,000 barrels a day.
This is expected to result in the average price of crude oil climbing to US$50-$60 (Bt1,800-Bt2,160) per barrel, the study found.
The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, projects global economic growth to increase from 3.1 per cent this year to 3.4 per cent in 2017, he said.
The US economy is expected to expand more strongly next year, at 2.2 per cent versus 1.7 per cent, due to recovering employment, household spending and broader consumption, while the US dollar will likely strengthen from this year’s level.
However, growth in the euro-zone economy is forecast to be slightly slower next year, at an estimated 1.7 per cent against 1.6 per cent, while the euro will weaken, he said.
Many risk factors will affect the European Union next year, including high unemployment rates among its members, uncertainty over negotiations with the UK over the decision to leave the EU, political change in many countries, and continuing refugee problems, Pimchanok said.
In Japan, the economy is expected to grow 0.9 per cent next year, against just 0.5 per cent this year, due to a relaxation of financial policy and economic stimulus packages.
However, the Japanese economy faces risks due to the country’s continued deflation and high public debt, plus the fact that it would be impacted by a strengthening of the US dollar.
China’s economic growth is expected to slow from 6.6 per cent this year to 6.4 per cent next year, as a result of the continued structural adjustment of the economy from investment to consumption, and the shift of emphasis from the industrial sector to the services sector.
In addition, while the Chinese government’s policy to relax financial and monetary measures would weaken the value of the yuan, it could help stimulate economic growth, the director-general said.
The bureau’s study found also that Thai inflation would likely be slightly higher next year, at between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent, due to higher oil prices causing higher transportation costs, especially for public transportation, and higher domestic production costs, Pimchanok added.
