Baht’s fall may be limited if gold rebounds, predicts strategist
The baht opened at 35.23 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from Friday’s close of 35.21.
The Thai currency is expected to move between 35.15 and 35.35 to the dollar during the day and between 34.90 and 35.50 during the week, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
He added that the baht may fluctuate and weaken to test its resistance level at 35.40 to the dollar because foreign transactions are flowing out of the country. This is because the market is in a risk-off state, while the dollar is not weakening easily until the market is confident that the US Federal Reserve will not increase the interest rate too high.
He added that the baht’s weakening may be limited if the gold price rebounds, which will encourage investors to sell gold.
The baht may also not weaken to the new resistance level of 36 to the dollar unless a new lockdown is enforced in China, forcing investors to dump assets in emerging Asian markets.
He speculated that the dollar may strengthen as the market fluctuates due to concerns over a recession.
However, the dollar may weaken if the Fed does not signal a high increase in interest rates or if the market is in a risk-on state.
Poon advised investors to use hedging tools like options to manage their risks in the highly volatile currency market.