Ad spend stays negative, while a rebound expected in 2H

A recovery in the advertising industry has become even more uncertain due to unforeseen factors, such as the conflict in the Middle East, according to Pawat Ruangdejworachai, Chairman and CEO of Media Intelligence Group (MI GROUP).

"At the beginning of the year, we expected the advertising industry to contract slightly due to the inevitable decline of mainstream media. However, five months in, we encountered the war in the Middle East, which has impacted manufacturing costs. 

“Even if the war ends, logistics costs will continue to have a ripple effect into the third quarter” 

Consequently, during the first five months of 2026, total advertising expenditure reached 32.866 billion baht, reflecting a 4.48% contraction, which was worse than initially projected, according to Bangkokbiznews.

Rising manufacturing and logistics costs have exerted both direct and indirect impacts on operators.

"We must admit that ad spending shrinks every year, but it continues to contract this year because fragile economic factors are heavily pressuring the business sector,” Pawat explained regarding the current economic strain.

This pressure is especially true for SMEs, which can no longer bear the brunt. They are facing fierce competitors, a sluggish economy, weakened purchasing power, and repeated crises, making the situation genuinely dire.

Despite these challenges, maintaining a positive outlook is an essential hope required to drive business growth. In the second half of the year, the advertising media industry is expected to slightly rebound. 

Key tailwinds will stem from the government's economic stimulus policies, the recovery of Thai tourism, and a multitude of mega-events and activities occurring in Thailand, all of which are anticipated to revitalise brand spending.

The top prospective spenders for the remainder of 2026 include retail and e-commerce, websites and applications, non-alcoholic beverages, the government sector, and skincare products.

Rounding out the top ten are the automotive industry (particularly Chinese EVs), dairy products, concerts and exhibitions, pharmaceuticals and dietary supplements, and telecommunications.

However, compared to the previous year, while these specific business and product categories are exhibiting exceptionally vibrant spending trends, others have severely contracted, keeping the overall market in negative.

"There are some positive factors. We can observe encouraging signs, such as the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran aimed at ending the conflict and paving the way for a peace agreement,” Pawat noted.

Domestically, the government must press ahead with economic stimulus efforts, banking on a tourism recovery and various events scheduled from mid-year through the third quarter. Frankly speaking, this should make the market livelier, but the overall picture remains in the red.

The arduous recovery of the advertising media industry is partly attributed to the continuous outflow of funds from mainstream media, spanning both television and print. For instance, 13 years ago (in 2013), television advertising expenditure was valued as high as 77.111 billion baht. 

This year, it is projected to plummet to just 29.149 billion baht, representing less than 40% of its former value. This stands in stark contrast to digital media, which was valued at just 2.783 billion baht in 2012 but is projected to attract 32.145 billion baht this year—a more than tenfold growth (Source: DAAT).

"When TV and print media fall, they fall hard. Ad spending is genuinely flowing out of mainstream channels,” Pawat emphasised, noting that overall market spending is migrating to foreign platforms and influencers.

Nevertheless, the overall forecast for 2026 anticipates that ad spending will contract by 1.3%, with total industry expenditure reaching 83.869 billion baht, as emerging positive factors help shallow the decline.