ASEAN urged to unite and build resilience as global trade shifts

ASEAN must remain united while strengthening its resilience and ability to create value within the region as geopolitical rivalry, tariffs and technological competition reshape global trade, two senior Thai policy figures told the Southeast Asia Trade and Development Forum 2026.

Speaking at the forum on Wednesday (September 23), Supachai Panitchpakdi warned that economic policy was increasingly being used as an instrument of geopolitical competition, while Piyanuch Wuttisorn, Vice Minister for Commerce, set out three priorities for helping ASEAN respond to the changing global environment.

Supachai warns of fragmented global trade

Supachai, a former director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), former secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and former Thai deputy prime minister and commerce minister, described a global economy moving towards a more fragmented and multipolar order.

Tariffs, technology restrictions and other economic measures are increasingly being deployed to advance political and strategic goals, he argued.

“We are seeing countries adopting economic measures as their weapons to gain their political power,” Supachai told the forum. “We call it weaponisation of economic policies.”

Despite growing pressure on international trade, he rejected the idea that globalisation was ending, arguing that markets, technology and communication would continue to cross borders even as governments seek to reduce their dependence on strategic rivals.

“This is a globalising world. As much as people would do to deglobalise the world, it’s not going to succeed,” he remarked.

“People will communicate, people will talk, technology will flow, and the markets will always be operational.”

Technological competition is also becoming an increasingly important part of the struggle between major powers.

“Technology war is going to be ultimately the determinant in the way we will be allocating different sources of power,” Supachai warned, pointing to rapid advances in artificial intelligence and the narrowing technological gap between major economies.

ASEAN unity becomes more important

For ASEAN, Supachai argued that growing rivalry between major powers made regional unity even more important.

Rather than choosing sides, ASEAN should maintain open relationships with trading partners and use its diversity to build cooperation. Its ability to engage with competing powers has allowed the bloc to act as a platform for dialogue, but that influence depends on members acting collectively.

He referred to US reciprocal tariffs as an example of the pressure on ASEAN cohesion, noting that member states had considered developing a common position before individual governments pursued negotiations based on their own national interests.

“United ASEAN is very powerful,” Supachai stressed.

He also urged ASEAN to take a more active role in defending an open and predictable international trading system as major economies increasingly turn towards bilateral arrangements and transactional trade relationships.

Rather than simply expressing support for the rules-based system, he argued, ASEAN should work with like-minded economies to help advance reform of the WTO.

Changing supply chains also present opportunities, but Supachai cautioned against ASEAN remaining merely a production base. Foreign investment should bring technology transfer, workforce development, stronger domestic businesses and more value creation within the region.

Greater scrutiny of rules of origin, traceability, carbon footprints and environmental standards will also require ASEAN exporters to demonstrate more clearly where and how their goods are produced.

AI investment needs wider benefits

Supachai also questioned whether the rapid expansion of spending on artificial intelligence, data centres and digital infrastructure would automatically translate into higher productivity.

“In theory, digital economy can help enhance our productivity, but in reality, it’s still yet to be proven,” he noted.

“You have to build infrastructure around it, you have to have people who know how to use it, and the areas in which it can help mankind.”

AI and other technologies, he argued, should ultimately be judged by whether they improve people’s lives and broaden the benefits of economic development rather than deepen inequality.

Piyanuch sets out three ASEAN priorities

Against that backdrop, Piyanuch proposed three priorities for ASEAN: turning strategic openness into regional strength, making resilience a source of competitiveness and giving greater weight to the quality of economic growth.

“Geopolitical tensions, technology competition, climate change and food insecurity are reshaping the global economy. Globalisation is not dead; it is just shifting its focus from pure efficiency to strategic resilience,” she told the forum.

Her first priority is to transform “strategic openness into strategic strength” through more diverse economic relationships, deeper cooperation and greater co-creation and co-investment.

“In a fragmented world, strategic openness means diversifying connections, deepening meaningful cooperation and moving forward with active co-creation and co-investment,” Piyanuch noted.

She cited the First Protocol to Amend the ASEAN-Hong Kong, China Investment Agreement as an example of efforts to widen investment opportunities and deepen economic links with ASEAN partners.

Resilience as a competitive advantage

Piyanuch’s second priority is to treat resilience as a source of competitiveness rather than simply a mechanism for recovering from shocks.

“Resilience extends beyond shock recovery. It requires anticipating change, adapting rapidly and continuously driving value through resilient supply chains,” she explained.

Digital integration forms part of that approach. She highlighted the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement, or DEFA, whose negotiations were concluded this year, with signing expected in November.

Greater interoperability in paperless trade, digital identity and trusted data flows could lower costs, strengthen confidence in cross-border transactions and help micro, small and medium-sized enterprises reach ASEAN’s market of more than 650 million people.

Food security and the green transition could similarly strengthen competitiveness through higher standards, better traceability and closer links between farmers, businesses and markets.

“We sell not only the product, but the credibility of how it is made. Resilience itself becomes a competitive advantage,” Piyanuch remarked.

Thailand promotes balanced trade

Her third priority centres on the quality of growth.

Trade policy, Piyanuch argued, should look beyond export volumes to consider who participates, who benefits and how much economic value is retained domestically.

“Export value and export growth remain important, but increasingly, the quality of that growth matters too,” she emphasised.

Thailand is pursuing this through what she described as “balanced trade”, focusing on expanding opportunities for farmers and smaller businesses, diversifying markets while maintaining existing strengths, and increasing domestic value creation.

She also pointed to the India-Thailand Regional Co-creation Partnership as an example of efforts to deepen economic links through joint creation and investment.

“The voice of ASEAN does not require uniformity; our diversity is part of our strength,” Piyanuch concluded.

“Our goal is not just to measure how the world sees ASEAN, but to actively shape the future of global trade and development.”