PTT forecasts Dubai crude at US$95-105 amid Middle East tensions
PTT analysts expect Dubai crude to trade at US$95-105 a barrel in October and November as diplomacy and recovering shipping routes offer hope.
- PTT analysts forecast Dubai crude oil will trade between US$95 and US$105 a barrel in October and November 2026.
- The forecast is supported by upward price pressure from escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including attacks on a key Saudi pipeline and tensions over shipping routes.
- Downward pressure on the price is attributed to a recent US Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which strengthens the dollar and raises concerns about energy demand.
- The price outlook is also influenced by ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and China aimed at easing tensions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Global oil markets were pulled in opposite directions in September 2026, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East supporting prices while an interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) weighed on investment sentiment and energy demand.
PTT Group oil price analysts said Dubai crude remained volatile at elevated levels during the month, trading at US$99-128 a barrel and rising compared with August 2026.
The main support came from geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which affected key energy transport routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
The Fed’s rate increase, however, strengthened the US dollar, dampening investment sentiment and raising concerns about energy demand.
With markets still hopeful about diplomatic negotiations and the partial recovery of crude transport routes, the analysts forecast Dubai crude at US$95-105 a barrel in October and November 2026.
They identified four factors behind their outlook.
1. Escalating geopolitical risks
Tensions in the Middle East intensified after the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline on Friday (September 11, 2026), forcing the kingdom to suspend operations temporarily.
The pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day and is a key route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, carrying about 5 million barrels of crude a day to Yanbu port on the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia switched to ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port before restarting the East-West pipeline on September 22.
Exports from Yanbu were expected to resume from September 29, with the vessels bound for China.
2. Diplomacy between the United States and Iran
The United States and Iran began discussions on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 24 to explore ways to end the war.
The key issue was reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an easing of US sanctions.
The talks remained constrained, however, as neither side wanted to be the first to weaken its negotiating position.
3. Trump and Xi hold talks in Washington
Markets also watched talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington from September 23 to 25.
Alongside discussions on trade, tariffs, critical minerals, artificial intelligence (AI) and Taiwan, the United States tried to secure China’s support for economic pressure on Iran.
It also pushed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
China maintained a cautious stance, supporting efforts by the United States and Iran to reach an interim agreement that could pave the way for a broader peace accord.
4. First Fed rate rise since 2023
On the macroeconomic side, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted at its September 15-16 meeting to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%.
The first increase since 2023 reflected concerns about persistently high inflation.
Fed chair Kevin Warsh signalled that further rate rises remained possible if inflation failed to slow noticeably.
This could weigh on oil market sentiment through a stronger US dollar and concerns about future energy demand.
