Fuel and fresh food lift Thai September inflation to 2.82% as 2026 forecast narrows to 1.8–2.2%

Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) reported on October 6, 2026 that annual headline inflation reached 2.82% in September, driven by higher fuel and fresh food prices. The Commerce Ministry also narrowed its full-year inflation forecast to 1.8–2.2%, retaining its midpoint of about 2.0%.

Nantapong Chiralerspong, TPSO director-general, said September’s consumer price index stood at 102.93. Average headline inflation for January–September was 1.54% compared with the same period in 2025.

September’s index reading represents an increase of approximately 0.25% from the official August figure of 102.67. 
 

Energy accounts for more than 60% of September inflation

Nantapong said energy contributed 1.85 percentage points to September’s annual inflation rate, accounting for more than 60% of the overall increase.

Domestic fuel prices remained above their levels a year earlier because of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Prepared food also became more expensive as producers faced higher costs across several inputs, while fresh food prices rose, including chicken eggs, fresh chicken and vegetables.

The findings continued the pattern of fuel and food driving Thailand’s inflation identified in the previous month’s report. 

Prices rise for 190 items in Thailand’s consumer basket

TPSO’s survey of the 464 goods and services used to calculate headline inflation found that prices rose for 190 items, remained unchanged for 136 and fell for 138.

The reported movements included:

Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, stood at 1.50% year on year in September. The core consumer price index was 102.98, up 0.01% from August.

For January–September, average core inflation was 1.01% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.

Commerce Ministry narrows 2026 inflation forecast to 1.8–2.2%

TPSO revised its full-year headline inflation forecast from 1.5–2.5% to 1.8–2.2%, keeping the midpoint unchanged at approximately 2.0%. Nantapong attributed the outlook to energy prices remaining elevated amid geopolitical conflict.

TPSO identified several factors that could sustain inflation through the rest of the year: conflict-related pressure on fuel prices, the passing on of higher costs to fresh and prepared food, higher travel costs, weather-related disruption to agricultural production and stronger demand for fresh vegetables during the Vegetarian Festival.

Electricity prices and personal care products were expected to provide some downward pressure on inflation.

TPSO expects limited inflation impact from flooding

Nantapong said TPSO expected the current floods to have a relatively small effect on overall inflation, although fresh vegetables were particularly exposed to supply disruption.

Tender leafy vegetables and crops with short growing cycles faced the greatest risks. TPSO highlighted major growing areas, particularly in Central and Western Thailand. The provinces named in the report were Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Lop Buri, Ayutthaya, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima.

Nantapong said TPSO had examined the 2011 floods as a comparison. According to the office’s assessment, inflation did not increase significantly during that disaster and subsequently eased as lost income and spending on home repairs constrained other household expenditure.