Thailand-US trade surges as both sides move closer to tariff deal

Thailand-US trade has expanded sharply over the past three years, with Thai technology exports and imports of US energy products accelerating as the two countries move towards completing negotiations on an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART).

The latest push follows a letter from US President Donald Trump to Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, expressing hope that the tariff and trade agreement could be concluded soon and, if possible, signed during Trump’s planned visit to Asia in November.

Anutin has assigned Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun to lead the remaining negotiations, which the government says have entered their final stage.

A possible signing could coincide with the ASEAN Summit in the Philippines on November 16–18 or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in China on November 18–19, although Trump’s attendance has yet to be confirmed.

Trade agreement enters final technical stage

The Commerce Ministry says Thailand and the United States have already agreed on the main substance and principles of the ART, leaving technical teams to settle remaining details and legal wording.

Suphajee said after talks in Washington in September that the two sides had reached agreement on the core issues and were working to conclude outstanding technical matters as quickly as possible.

Thailand initially faced a proposed US reciprocal tariff of 36% in 2025 before the rate was reduced to 19%. Under the framework announced by Thailand and the United States on October 26, 2025, Thailand agreed to eliminate tariffs on around 99% of US goods, while Washington proposed maintaining a 19% reciprocal tariff on originating Thai goods and granting a zero rate to selected products.

That framework was not the final ART. US tariff policy has since changed, while Thailand is also subject to US Section 301 processes.

The Commerce Ministry said in September that Thai goods were currently subject to a 12.5% Section 301 tariff related to forced-labour measures, while a separate US investigation into structural excess capacity remained pending. Thailand’s negotiating objective is to keep the eventual overall tariff burden around the previous 19% benchmark, or at least no higher than that faced by regional competitors.

Bilateral trade rises sharply over three years

Despite tariff uncertainty, trade between Thailand and the United States has continued to grow.

In 2024, bilateral trade totalled US$74.272 billion, up 10% from the previous year. Thai exports reached US$54.944 billion, up 14%, while imports rose 0.1% to US$19.328 billion. Thailand recorded a trade surplus of US$35.616 billion, up 23%.

Growth accelerated in 2025, when total trade climbed 26% to US$93.409 billion. Thai exports increased 32% to US$72.519 billion, imports rose 8% to US$20.890 billion and Thailand’s trade surplus jumped 45% to US$51.629 billion.

During the first eight months of 2026, bilateral trade reached US$84.164 billion, or about THB2.701 trillion, up 42% year on year.

Thai exports to the United States surged 43% to US$64.734 billion, or about THB2.070 trillion, while imports from the US increased 40% to US$19.430 billion, or about THB631.279 billion.

Thailand consequently recorded a US$45.304 billion trade surplus, equivalent to about THB1.439 trillion, up 44%.

The United States remains Thailand’s largest export market. The Commerce Ministry has said the bilateral economic relationship is particularly important for Thai manufacturing, while Thailand has also sought to increase imports from the US in areas including energy, advanced machinery and agricultural products.

Computers and communications equipment lead exports

Technology and industrial goods drove Thailand’s exports to the US during the first eight months of 2026.

Exports of computers, equipment and components reached US$20.525 billion, up 72%.

Telephones, fax equipment and related components climbed 146% to US$7.637 billion.

Other leading exports included rubber products at US$2.788 billion, down 11%; transformers and components at US$2.431 billion, up 38%; and machinery and mechanical parts at US$2.335 billion, up 40%.

The figures underline the increasing role of electronics, digital products and infrastructure-related equipment in Thailand’s exports to the American market.

US oil and gas imports surge

Thailand has also sharply increased purchases from the United States, particularly energy products and capital goods, as part of efforts to expand two-way trade.

During January-August, Thailand imported US$5.230 billion of US crude oil, an increase of 80%.

Natural gas imports jumped 140% to US$1.959 billion, while imports of aircraft, gliders, aviation equipment and parts surged 229% to US$1.602 billion.

Machinery and components were valued at US$1.269 billion, down 10%, while chemical imports rose 21% to US$997 million.

Energy purchases are also a significant part of the 2025 trade framework, which referred to planned Thai purchases of US liquefied natural gas, crude oil and ethane as part of efforts to deepen bilateral commercial ties.

Thailand therefore continues to run a large trade surplus with the United States, but the rapid growth of US energy and capital-goods imports indicates that bilateral trade is becoming broader.

The next major test will be the final ART negotiations and whether Thailand can secure tariff conditions that preserve the competitiveness of its exports in its most important overseas market.

Source: Thansettakij