IMF urges stronger institutions as Thailand faces debt and ageing
IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura urges Thailand to address debt, ageing and climate risks while investing in skills, strengthening institutions and harnessing AI.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Thailand's future growth is threatened by high household debt, a rapidly ageing population, and climate risks.
- To address these challenges, the IMF is urging the country to strengthen its economic institutions and macroeconomic policy frameworks.
- The fund also recommends continued investment in human capital and maintaining openness to global markets, which were key to its past success.
- Thailand is advised to find new sources of growth by embracing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and digitalisation.
Thailand must confront high household debt, rapid population ageing and climate risks while strengthening its economic foundations and developing new sources of growth, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura.
Okamura made the remarks at the Thailand Special Seminar, “Bangkok 1991–2026: Thailand’s Path to Resilient, Inclusive Growth”, held during the 2026 IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok on Tuesday (October 13). He outlined Thailand's economic achievements over the past 35 years and the challenges that could constrain future growth.
He highlighted the country's substantial transformation since Bangkok last hosted the annual meetings in 1991, pointing to economic expansion, rising gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and a sharp reduction in poverty.
“The economy is now more than three times larger than it was then. GDP per capita has risen from less than 1,800 US dollars to more than 8,000 US dollars.”
Thailand's poverty rate has also fallen from more than 50% to below 5%, while manufacturing and high-productivity services have increased their share of economic value added.
The country has become an important regional hub for manufacturing, trade and tourism.
“Few countries have achieved such a far-reaching transformation within one generation,” Okamura observed.
Three foundations of Thailand's economic success
Okamura attributed Thailand's progress to three major factors: sound economic institutions, international economic integration and investment in human capital.
The first was the development of credible macroeconomic policy frameworks and stronger institutions following the Asian financial crisis. These improvements helped preserve stability and enabled Thailand to withstand a succession of major shocks.
The second was greater openness to regional and global markets, which supported investment and exports, created opportunities and facilitated structural transformation.
The third was sustained investment in education, health and skills, which expanded economic opportunities, improved living standards and laid the foundations for future development.
Okamura emphasised that these strengths would remain essential as Thailand faced a more challenging global environment.
Household debt, ageing and climate risks weigh on outlook
Despite its achievements, Thailand faces structural challenges that could weigh on its long-term growth prospects.
He also pointed to a more fragmented, uncertain and shock-prone global environment as a challenge the country must navigate.
“Thailand must also address structural challenges that could weigh on future growth. These include rapid population aging, high household debt, and climate risks.”
Stronger institutions and investment in people remain essential
To sustain economic expansion, Okamura emphasised the importance of reinforcing the foundations of Thailand's earlier progress.
“Further strengthening Thailand's macroeconomic frameworks and institutions, advancing openness and integration, and investing in human capital will be critical to sustain growth and resilience.”
AI and digitalisation could unlock new growth
Beyond strengthening existing foundations, Okamura highlighted the need for Thailand to identify additional engines of economic growth, particularly through emerging technologies.
“Thailand will also need new sources of growth, including by harnessing the productivity gains from artificial intelligence and digitalization.”
At the same time, the country must create opportunities for younger generations, adapt to an ageing population and ensure that the benefits of economic progress are broadly shared.
Looking ahead, he expressed hope that Thailand would build on its achievements and achieve another successful chapter in its economic development, offering valuable lessons for other countries in the region and beyond.
