JSCCIB lifts 2026 growth outlook to 2.4–2.6%

Thailand’s Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.4–2.6% from 2.1–2.5%, after revised manufacturing data revealed stronger industrial activity than previously reported.

Dr Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand, outlined the revised projections after chairing the committee’s meeting. The brighter outlook was accompanied by concerns over uneven growth within Thailand and mounting international risks, including the implications of the US midterm elections.

“The JSCCIB has raised its forecast for Thailand’s economic growth in 2026 to 2.4–2.6%, from the previous estimate of 2.1–2.5%. We have also increased our export growth forecast to 18–22%, from 12–16%, while lowering our inflation forecast to 2.1–2.5%, from 2.5–3.0%,” Dr Poj said.

 

Revised factory data show growth, but benefits remain uneven

Dr Poj explained that revisions to the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) had changed the picture of Thailand’s manufacturing performance. The revised index showed growth of 2.6% in the first nine months of 2026, whereas the previous figures had indicated a contraction.

Technology-related products recorded growth of 18.9%, consistent with the earlier acceleration in foreign direct investment and strong export growth during the year.

Despite the improved figures, the JSCCIB remained concerned that Thailand’s economy was developing an increasingly pronounced “K-shaped” pattern, with some businesses expanding while others continued to struggle.

Dr Poj identified businesses benefiting from global investment in artificial intelligence and data centres as the stronger-performing group. However, their reliance on imported raw materials was around 60%, limiting the benefits reaching the wider Thai economy.

Businesses at the weaker end of the economy continued to face subdued domestic purchasing power. The committee called for stronger links between expanding industries and the rest of the economy through greater domestic value creation, employment of Thai workers and use of local supply chains.

The JSCCIB also urged improvements in the competitiveness of struggling businesses so that Thai operators could share more widely in economic growth.

US elections and energy costs complicate the global outlook

The JSCCIB identified the US midterm election results as an important influence on the direction of US government policy and the broader global economy.

Dr Poj suggested that the outcome could encourage greater caution in the US administration’s decisions. An easing of international conflicts would also help reduce economic costs, he added.

The committee nevertheless assessed global economic risks as rising. It cited crude oil prices of around US$105–110 per barrel in early November, with geopolitical tensions likely to keep prices elevated and sustain pressure on living costs and inflation.

In discussing the wider impact of geopolitical tensions, Poj also referred to an oil-price range of US$100–150 per barrel and its consequences for energy costs and household expenses.

Dr Poj pointed to protests in several European countries as governments faced tighter budget constraints. Spending on energy-price support, security and weapons procurement was leaving fewer resources for economic development and assistance to the public.

The JSCCIB also highlighted elevated long-term government bond yields and concerns about a potential bubble in AI-related businesses as further sources of pressure on the global outlook.

Seven-sector strategy links investment with domestic production

Dr Poj described the recently concluded International Monetary Fund–World Bank Group meetings as an opportunity for Thailand to generate a new phase of economic expansion, or a “second take-off”.

Thailand could act as a “trusted connector” for new investment, he argued, attracting future industries aligned with global trends and energy-transition projects that would support a low-carbon economy.

The JSCCIB was ready to help advance seven target industries under the Reinvent Thailand initiative through the Joint Public and Private Sector Committee for Economic Problem Solving (JPPCC). The aim was to improve productivity and develop human capital in support of stronger, sustainable and inclusive growth.

For the automotive sector, the JSCCIB backed the government’s move to raise excise tax to 35% on completely built-up imports of battery electric vehicles and range-extended electric vehicles.

The committee viewed the measure as a way to encourage domestic manufacturing and investment while creating fairer competitive conditions for vehicle producers and parts suppliers.

The automotive industry and its supply chain accounted for approximately 10% of Thailand’s GDP, supported more than 800,000 jobs and included over 3,000 small and medium-sized enterprises, the committee noted.

The JSCCIB expected the tax measure to help the automotive industry grow by at least 7% in 2027 and bring annual domestic vehicle production back to 1.55 million units.

The committee also supported the transition towards next-generation automotive manufacturing and higher-value technologies, including next-generation components known as E-Parts and connected and autonomous vehicle systems. It wanted international partners to establish manufacturing bases and research and development centres in Thailand.

Business group backs tougher industrial-waste enforcement

The JSCCIB expressed serious concern about the environmental impact of industrial waste and supported government and Industry Ministry measures to control and inspect imported waste.

The committee called for firm action against factories operating illegally, particularly those involved in unlawful waste dumping. Enforcement should be decisive and fair, including factory closures or licence revocations where the legal conditions were met.

The JSCCIB maintained that the private sector would not shield offenders and that businesses complying with the law should not be disadvantaged by those breaking it.

The committee planned further discussions to develop proposals for systematic, transparent industrial-waste management, with traceability throughout the supply chain. The proposals would aim to protect communities and the environment, ensure fair competition and strengthen long-term confidence in Thai manufacturing.