New housing supply grows faster than sales in northeastern Thailand

A Real Estate Information Center (REIC) survey of five major northeastern provinces in the first half of 2026 points to a shared finding that “purchasing power remains”.

Managing supply is the main challenge, as Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, Ubon Ratchathani and Maha Sarakham have distinct sales trends, inventories and demand patterns.

Across the five provinces, total housing supply rose 4.4% year on year to 15,777 units, valued at THB53.241 billion.

Newly launched supply increased 62.3% to 2,224 units worth THB6.803 billion, while new home sales grew just 0.5% to 2,356 units worth THB7.778 billion.

Unsold stock consequently rose 5.3% to 13,421 units, valued at THB45.463 billion.

The average absorption rate was 2.5% a month, with remaining stock estimated to take about 34 months to sell.

Condominiums would take about 22 months to clear, compared with 44 months for homes in housing estates.

Demand remains in the Northeast, although in some areas new supply is entering the market faster than it can be absorbed.

Second-hand homes become a key competitor

Second-hand homes are also playing a significantly greater role.

They account for more than 70% of all housing ownership transfers in the Northeast, above the national average, with the share approaching 90% in some provinces.

This reflects both competition between new and second-hand homes and the market’s actual purchasing power.

With buyers having more choice over price, location and space, new home developers cannot compete simply by launching projects.

They need to demonstrate how their properties offer “value” that differs from second-hand homes.

Prices, house sizes, locations, features and purchase terms all need to match purchasing power in each city.

Nakhon Ratchasima stock could take 51 months to clear

Nakhon Ratchasima, also known as Korat, remains one of the Northeast’s large housing markets.

Its performance in the first half of 2026, however, shows developers adopting a more “guarded” approach.

Total supply fell 7.6% year on year, while newly launched supply rose 46.5%, all of it in housing estates.

New home sales declined 23.7%.

Although unsold stock fell 5.3% to 3,763 units, an average absorption rate of just 1.7% a month means it would take about 51 months, or more than four years, to sell the remaining homes if no new supply were added.

This makes “stock management” Korat’s main challenge, rather than accelerating new development.

In Pak Chong, total supply fell 20.8% year on year, and new home sales dropped 58.4%.

Unsold stock declined 12.4%, yet the absorption rate for housing estates was only 1.2% a month, with the remaining stock estimated to take about 74 months to sell.

Falling stock does not indicate an immediate return to market strength, as the “pace of sales” remains a constraint.

Khon Kaen’s condominium demand grows

Khon Kaen is one of the markets showing the clearest positive signals in the survey.

Total supply increased 6.0% year on year to 6,760 units worth THB21.482 billion.

Newly launched supply comprised 672 units, including 583 condominiums and 89 homes in housing estates.

New home sales grew 17.4%, driven mainly by “condominiums”, whose sales rose 70.0%, particularly at newly launched projects in urban locations that sold out.

Total housing ownership transfers in Khon Kaen increased by almost 30%, taking the province ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima to rank first in the Northeast.

Transfers of new condominiums almost doubled.

The buying activity reflects demand from working people and those wanting to live in urban areas, leaving room for growth in Khon Kaen’s condominium market.

That demand does not provide scope for unlimited new supply.

Unsold stock still rose 3.7% year on year, while the overall absorption rate was 3.1% a month.

Khon Kaen’s challenge is therefore more than “whether to launch or not”: developers need to choose carefully what to launch, where and at what price.

Udon Thani’s supply surge raises condominium concerns

In contrast to Khon Kaen, Udon Thani faces rapidly expanding supply. Total supply rose 74.4% year on year, while newly launched supply jumped 719.8%.

New home sales increased 73.8%, driven mainly by condominiums, whose sales rose 356.5%.

Even so, sales growth was insufficient to prevent unsold inventory from increasing by 74.6%.

The average absorption rate is 3.1% a month, with remaining stock expected to take about 26 months to clear.

That period may not be an immediate concern, although the “direction” of the market warrants more attention than the current figure alone.

If supply continues to enter the market faster than homes can be sold, clearance periods could lengthen quickly.

Udon Thani’s challenge is to slow the introduction of new supply and speed up efforts to manage existing condominium stock before inventory creates fresh pressure.

New home sales slow in Ubon Ratchathani

Ubon Ratchathani also shows a clear slowdown.

Total supply fell 14.7% year on year, while newly launched supply declined 18.2%, all of it in housing estates.

New home sales dropped 56.3%, with condominium sales down 96.6%.

Unsold stock stood at 1,176 units, and an average absorption rate of just 1.5% a month meant it would take about 59 months to clear.

Although total housing ownership transfers increased by about 14%, sales at new developments remained slow and unsold condominium stock rose by almost 28%.

Demand in Ubon Ratchathani remains, although it does not extend to every property type.

Low-rise homes priced within buyers’ reach may better match purchasing power, while new condominium supply requires careful consideration.

Maha Sarakham’s small market

Maha Sarakham needs a different strategy from larger markets.

Its market consists entirely of housing estate projects, with no remaining condominium units offered for sale.

Total supply increased 5.4% year on year, and new home sales rose 16.7%, although unsold stock grew 4.3%, showing that supply was still entering the market faster than it could be absorbed at times.

The average absorption rate was 1.6% a month, with about 55 months needed to clear inventory.

In such a small market, a single new project can immediately change the balance between supply and demand.

The appropriate strategy is to develop small projects, phase investment and focus on buyers purchasing homes to live in, rather than rapidly expanding projects in pursuit of short-term sales.

“Inventory” remains a major challenge

Dr Mana Nimitvanich, director of REIC, said relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) rules and lower ownership transfer and mortgage registration fees had helped improve housing market activity.

In the first half of 2026, the number of homes transferred nationwide rose by about 18%, while the value of transfers increased by about 10%.

Housing lending followed a similar trend.

Recovery nevertheless varies by province.

Khon Kaen has demand supporting condominium growth, while Korat is managing and selling existing stock.

Udon Thani needs to be cautious about supply expansion, Ubon Ratchathani needs to align products with purchasing power, and Maha Sarakham requires a cautious approach through small projects.

The lesson from the Northeast’s housing market in the first half of 2026 goes beyond the finding that “the market is recovering”.

Recovery is not taking place at the same time in every province, and developers cannot apply the same formula everywhere.

With inventory holding costs still a major challenge, their advantage may lie less in having the most projects than in understanding purchasing power and matching new supply to the pace of sales.