There's method in the government's madness

Why so? Our Political Desk talked to a high-ranking source in the Pheu Thai Party and come up with the following conclusions:

The police chief blitz was necessary for technical reasons. The person the government wanted to replace Wichean Potephosree with has only one year left before his mandatory retirement. This means the government had to move quickly, or Pol General Priewpan Damapong would not be legally qualified for the top police post. In other words, the government could not afford a protracted controversy that could eat into the precious little time Priewpan has left.

Political factors favour the government going for broke where Thaksin is concerned. The source suggested the Yingluck government did not want to repeat the "Samak mistake". Late prime minister Samak Sundaravej waited and waited and waited until it was too late.

Apparently, the current thinking among Pheu Thai strategists is that Thailand's political environment means any government's popularity is likely to be very short-lived, so any election mandate should be exercised as soon as possible. Making an early push for Thaksin's return has certainly sparked criticism, but the Yingluck government would rather face criticism now, than when its popularity has eroded.

The Samak factor has been reinforced by other key factors, one being the virtual indifference of the yellow shirts. The movement has stayed true to its pre-election word - that Thaksin is now the Democrat Party's problem - and the government is apparently exploiting the situation. Most importantly, having the Democrats oppose Thaksin's return is easier to cope with than having the People's Alliance for Democracy organise months-long street protests.

The weakened resolve of the yellow shirts also coincides with the split among the Thai media. During Thaksin Shinawatra's last days in power, the Thai media were in unison about his serious shortcomings. Now, newspapers are divided over whether his virtues can compensate for his flaws. Some news organisations have welcomed Yingluck Shinawatra's rise to power with open arms, while others are scrutinising her every step. The same goes for the plan to find a way to let Thaksin come home without having to go to jail. Some believe the plan constitutes exploitation of democracy, but others insist it's the only practical way to bring back political peace.

Chalerm Yoobamrung is another reason the Yingluck government has to push hard. Having decided to let the deputy premier lead the campaign to get Thaksin home, the government naturally has to allow him to play his game. Chalerm is aggressive, not afraid of bad publicity and doesn't care if he creates more enemies. Once Chalerm goes down a road, it's make or break. The only thing the government has to do is create an environment conducive to his style, or at least tolerate his style. And that's why Chalerm is being allowed to bulldoze his way toward the previously lofty goal of an amnesty for Thaksin.

So, the government has chosen a fast-track approach, taking advantage of a disorganised opposition and its still-fresh democratic mandate. It could be the right strategy, as criticism so far has shown no sign of transforming into organised resistance. Nor has the risk of the wheels coming off presented itself. But we rarely get advanced warning for that kind of thing, do we?