Political ploy puts pressure on Prayuth

A key issue is not the fate of Prayuth, but the politicisation of military affairs. Attempts to wean the military off politics will be in vain if politicians carry on meddling in the Army line-up.

 

The lesson about the lethal mixture of military and politics is still a recent memory. Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra groomed his fellow graduates from Pre-Cadet Class 11 to shield his administration from 2001 to 2005.Thaksin’s handpicking of favourite officers backfired and drove a wedge through his military allies – about half became disenchanted with his leadership before staging the 2006 coup to oust him.

 

Last Saturday Defence Minister Sukampol Suwannathat made a personal visit to Hong Kong in order to meet with his political patron Thaksin. Regardless of denials churned out by the government’s spin doctors, Sukampol sought and received Thaksin’s instruction on the military reshuffle.

 

Two days later, Sukampol brought two top officers, Army assistant chief General Tanongsak Apirakyotin and Air Force assistant chief Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong, to meet Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra at Government House. According to government insiders, Sukampol wanted the PM to get acquainted with the two rising military stars.

 

Tanongsak is being groomed for the position of Defence permanent secretary, replacing General Sathian Permtong-in after his retirement in September. Prajin is slated to carry the Air Force’s torch following the retirement of incumbent head Air Chief Marshal Itthaporn Subhawong.

 

Although Sukampol chose, presumably with Thaksin’s blessing, to unveil two officers groomed for promotion, no one should draw a hasty conclusion that the pair will definitely get these jobs.

 

Sukampol is no stranger to the game of horse trading with the top brass. It is unrealistic to expect Thaksin and Sukampol to stake everything on two relatively unknown officers.

 

From the military and political points of view, the ceremonial positions in the Defence Ministry and Air Force should not cause a stir unless they have implications for the Army.

 

Prajin has an exemplary track record and will likely be promoted without any need for political backing. In his endorsement of Prajin, Sukampol wants to signal that the top commanders should concede “something” in exchange for his willingness to overlook Prajin’s linkage to the 2006 coup. 

 

And Sukampol’s “something” is evident in his link to Tanongsak. The Army assistant chief is not the most senior and indispensable officer for the top job at Defence. It is uncertain if he will get the job.

 

But Sukampol has backed him, nonetheless, because he is sending a subtle message to Prayuth. By mentioning Tanongsak, one of the top five generals in the Army, as his choice, he is sending a signal to Prayuth about shuffling the Army’s topmost echelons.

 

As Prayuth is scheduled to retire in 2014, he is reluctant to upset the apple cart by naming his heir-apparent too early before his exit. Sukampol’s trick aims to force Prayuth to name his successor now so that the government can elevate him to the ceremonial position of Supreme Commander next year.

 

Thaksin used the same ploy to ease out the then Army chief General Surayud Chulanont in 2002. In about a month, it will become clear whether Prayuth or Sukampol will come out on top in this game of military musical chairs.