Changes urged to 11th NESDB plan

The 11th NESDB plan is due to be implemented at the end of this year and to be in effect through 2016.

Populist projects – the mainstay of the current government’s policy platform – will weaken the country and individual citizens’ economic stability and could eventually result in collapse like the one that befell Greece, former deputy prime minister Kosit Panpiemras said at the hearing in Bangkok. Kosit heads the Commission on Thailand Population Projection under the NESDB.

Looking at the economic aspects of population, the reduction in the age range of the working population will mean less interest from local and foreign investors, who foresee that older people will have less buying power than the younger ones, he said. By 2040, 32.1 per cent of people living in Thailand will be older than 60, while another 55.1 per cent of people will be in the working age range between 15 and 59, and 12.8 per cent will be under 14. The total estimated resident population is 63.9 million, he said.

The figure of 63.9 million has been reduced from a current estimate of 67 million, which includes not only Thais but also migrant workers, of whom there around 2.1 million in Thailand now. The number is expected to decline as a result of migration of workers between many countries, including those outside Asean, after the Asean Economic Community takes effect in 2015.

The plan still adheres to a philosophy associated with Thai people’s habits and culture, Kosit said. “The majority of Thai people are by default under the influence of Thai norms which the Plan still follows, categorised as ‘getting rich after getting old’, while other [developed] countries’ policies are the other way around: Their plans are aimed at making the most of their people, or ‘getting rich before getting old’,” he said.

NESDB secretary-general Arkhom Termphitthayaphaisit said the hearing would collect feedback from Kosit and other participants – who include NGO officials, activists and policy makers from both private and other government think-tanks – and analyse them, while the board was willing to readjust certain policies under the plan.