Water expert: Slim chance of floods as bad as in 2011

There is only a “slim chance” Bangkok will face flooding as bad as last year. That’s because it would take at least 17 storms this and next month to produce the same amount of water, according to Royol Chitdon, a panel chief on the Water and Flood Management Committee (WFMC).
In an exclusive interview with The Nation, Royol urged the public, especially Bangkokians, to avoid panic by paying more attention to the flood-related information.
“I can’t tell you and I won’t tell you whether there will definitely be flooding or no flooding this year. The only thing I can say is Thailand has a slim chance of facing a situation like last year’s flood,” said Royol, who is also the director of the Hydro and Agro Infomatics Institute (HAII).
However, flood-prone low-lying areas would likely face repeated flooding, he conceded. Royal urged residents to look at statistical comparisons to past floods rather than just asking if there will be flooding or not.
Statistics gathered by HAII show the amount of run-off in the upper Chao Phraya basin a year ago was eight billion cubic metres. The amount of run-off in the same area this year stands at 1,000 cubic metres.
While the run-off amount in the lower Chao Phraya basin last year was at 12 billion to 14 billion cubic metres, the amount now was 300 million cubic metres.
It would take at least seven storms in the upper Chao Phraya basin and 12 storms in the lower basin to create the amount of floodwater to equal last year’s calamity, Royol said.
“There is a slim chance that 17 storms could occur this month and next because of the current weather conditions and the presence of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean,” he explained.
Since last year, flood-prevention measures have been improved and implemented in the flood-affected areas including Bangkok. Measures put in place in the past few months include canal dredging, water pumps and water-pushing machines. Drainage tests were done in Bangkok recently to study the capacity of canals.
The shallow, low-lying Lat Phrao Canal was seen as the weakest point in the city’s drainage system. The canal also suffered from blockages due to construction and garbage. However, a water-pushing machine raised the canal’s drainage capacity to 17 cubic metres per second.
A water-pushing machine could drain water from western Bangkok’s Thawee Wattana Canal at 15 cubic metres per second, according to the test, after 20 per cent of that volume was released into the canal.
To protect Bangkok, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has prepared 40 water-pushing machines to drain water in city canals while the Royal Thai Navy Dockyard has prepared another 40 water-pushing machines.
“The situation this year has changed from last year,” Royol said.
Run-off is currently not being drained through BMA canals in order to better enable the city to deal with rainwater this season, Royol noted.
He suggested that Bangkokians closely follow the flood situation from reliable sources. “We found that Bangkok people don’t pay enough attention to the flood situation nor do they seek more information to understand the situation. They just care about their business,” he said. In contrast, upcountry residents were more dutiful in monitoring the flood situation and weather.
“What I found is people tend to believe information according to who delivers the message rather than really considering the source of the information.”