Charter change is the real battle
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Following yesterday's swearing-in ceremony, the new Cabinet will face its first litmus test in Parliament and its rise or fall will hinge on the outcome of skirmishes on the legislative floor.
Critics of the government are gearing for a protracted war to root out what they see as false democracy championed by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The pro-Thaksin camp, meanwhile, is making full preparation to rein in the critics who they see as political dinosaurs incompatible with democratic rule.
For this year’s remaining few months, the government and the opposition will have two major fights – the censure debate and the charter rewrite.
Coalition and opposition whips have already scheduled the two-day censure to commence on November 25 – even though the Democrat Party is not due to file the motion of no confidence until next Wednesday.
The main opposition party is expected to single out Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra as the main target for grilling.
But many see the censure as the least of Yingluck’s worries. No one is predicting the prime minister or the government is in any danger from the censure vote.
The Democrats aim to attack Yingluck in a proxy war to get to their real adversary Thaksin. So long as voters remain loyal to his brand of populism, the next general election will just be a ritual vote to reinstall Pheu Thai to power.
Based on their rebuttals during the censure, newly appointed Cabinet members will either shine or fade into oblivion.
Because Thaksin is such a powerful variable in politics, the real battle to decide on his fate will take place in connection with the charter amendments.
It is obvious Thaksin has to undo legal hurdles imposed on him following the 2006 coup if he is to return home. And the master key to resolving his legal wrangling is amending certain charter provisions, such as Article 309, which, if left unchanged, could be cited to block his amnesty.
In his Forbes interview released this week, Thaksin pointedly mentioned Pheu Thai’s unwavering but careful push for charter change.
The ruling party is about to wrap up its report on rewriting the charter later this month in order to pave the way for the legislative debate within the current House session.
Coalition lawmakers have confirmed that a first move on charter rewrite will aim at amending Article 237, which prescribes punishment by party dissolution.
The government, the ruling party and the red-shirt movement are working in concerted effort to push for the passage of the charter amendments.
At this juncture, it remains unclear whether Pheu Thai will disclose its complete road map on charter change. The ruling party may opt to kick off the charter rewrite by amending just one or a few provisions in order to test the water.
Pending a successful push to amend Article 237, Pheu Thai will be home free to revamp the entire charter without risking punishment by disbandment.
Thus far the charter provision on party dissolution is the most powerful weapon wielded by the anti-Thaksin camp.
The opposition movement – including the Democrats, the yellow shirts, the multicoloured shirts, Pitak Siam, Santi Asok and leading critics such as Prasong Soonsiri – is putting up a fierce struggle to block Pheu Thai from having its way with the charter.
The fate of the government will not depend on job performance but on the outcome of skirmishes over charter amendment.
