Spike in violence raises questions on peace talks

The frequent targeted killings of high-ranking officials while a peace dialogue is underway with representatives of the insurgents has raised questions whether the effort is worthwhile as the list of casualties gets longer.
Many analysts said the fewer attacks – almost none of late – on innocent civilians, were not a sign that active insurgents were cooperating with Barasi Revolusi Nasional Coordinate (BRN), as one of many preconditions to resolve the conflict in a non-violent way.
The insurgents have instead turned to revenge attacks on higher-profile targets, which serve their interests better – by demoralising state officials and local residents along with a greater decline in the efficiency of the civilian administration due to constant loss of lives.

The targeted killings have even boosted the morale of government workers sympathetic to the insurgency, and prompted their extensive and direct cooperation, especially tip-offs with precise details about senior officials’ travel plans.
An unnamed sympathiser said roadside bomb attacks had previously been conducted randomly against any motorcades or vehicles of state officials, but now attackers, given abundant, time-sensitive tip-offs, could choose freely which vehicles they should attack, or focus mainly on trips involving senior officials.
Before the peace process kicked off on February 28, when representatives of Thai authorities and insurgents signed an agreement at a meeting in Malaysia to seek a peaceful solution to the nine-year-old insurgency, sympathisers had stayed low-profile, secretly providing financial, logistical and moral support to the insurgents.
“But after talks started with the BRN, they are openly showing their support for the insurgency, even announcing at various seminars held at hotels, loudly through microphones, that now it is not an end to the violence that they want, but territory – either through autonomy or even independence. This is the biggest difference in the situation before and after the talks with BRN,” he said.
Last week, National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Pattanathabutr, the key Thai negotiator, admitted in a television interview that future rounds of meetings may need to be skipped, or postponed, if violence continues – although innocent civilians and residential areas have been targeted less frequently lately.
An unnamed community leader said the frequent killings of high-ranking officials were not a result of the talks with BRN, but the insurgents had vowed to avenge an ambush in February at a Marine barracks in which the top 16 insurgents were killed. “They set a ratio of 1 to 5, or 1 to 10, and all targets must be high-ranking officials,” he explained.
The peace dialogue has also exposed disunity within the insurgency, while distinguishing between those with an inclination for peace and those aiming purely for separatism, said a military source. “Certain groups of the insurgents are getting confused about the leadership, but not distracted from their cause, whether it’s eventual separatism or armed struggle in the meantime.”
Many insurgents are attacking the leadership, branding them as weak, and are using a surge in violence to show that they are independent of their control and command, while other groups say the leadership members are seeking personal benefits by choosing the non-violent way. Many of the leaders are on the wanted list, while the operatives can stay underground and operate freely,” the source said.