Personal factors behind poll win
Play
Plus govt's popularity is also waning due to adverse publicity over its failed policies and schemes
The Democrat Party sees the narrow win by its candidate Tankhun Jitt-itsara over Pheu Thai’s Yuranunt Pamornmontri in the Don Muang by-election as a conquest over the ruling party’s 37-year stronghold.
The Democrat beat Yuranunt by 2,000 votes.
But observers say a key factor that contributed to the Democrat’s win is that voters judged candidates on an individual basis rather than the party they represent.
But this doesn’t necessarily mean that the voters totally dismissed the parties, because ballot results show prominent candidates from other smaller parties did not make a significant dent in the poll.
Yet statistics from the three previous elections in this district – the July 3, 2011 general election, the city governor’s election on March 3 and the latest by-election – show that the Democrats are slowly taking over the Pheu Thai stronghold.
Though the opposition won the Pathum Thani by-election in April last year, it suffered a humiliating defeat in the Chiang Mai this April when the voters threw their support wholeheartedly behind Pheu Thai candidate Yaowapa Wongsawat.
Pheu Thai had predicted that the margin of its victory was no more than 7 per cent and party analysts said this margin was derived from the candidate, not the party sentiment.
The party defended its defeat by saying that Yuranunt only had 18 days to campaign, while the competition had two whole years to win the hearts of the locals by helping them fight the flooding problems.
Tankhun also gained voters’ sympathy when his canvasser was shot dead. Besides, Democrat leaders helped him solicit votes through daily door-knocking campaign.
Just because Pheu Thai’s Karun Hosakul had been a favourite in Don Muang, it does not mean the voters would automatically opt for Yuranunt. Plus, the government is losing its popularity due to the adverse publicity it is gaining from the rice-pledging scheme, the Bt350-billion water project and the Bt2-trillion infrastructure scheme.
Pheu Thai strategists will have to work hard if they don’t want the capital to become a weakness, although the Democrats should not be too content and take this victory for granted.
