Only positive scenarios for Pheu Thai rivals
Once the lengthy impeachment process against three Pheu Thai politicians finally comes to an end today, their opponents can make moves to further nail them down. The three will, after all, be at their most vulnerable.
One of the politicians in this process is former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who faces charges of dereliction of duty in relation to the rice-pledging scheme. While the other two are former Parliament president Somsak Kiatsuranon and his then-deputy Nikom Wairatpanich, who are indicted for violating the 2007 Constitution by trying to change the make-up of the Senate.
Impeachment cases have rarely been successful in Thailand, because impeaching a politician requires a very high number of votes in Parliament. Previously, even if the charges levelled against the accused were very strong, their supporters in Parliament could vote in their favour and against the motion.
However, the circumstances are different this time around.
All seats in Parliament are filled by people appointed by the National Council for Peace and Order, and most of these people are known for their anti-Thaksin Shinawatra stance. The accused, on the other hand, all come from the Thaksin camp.
Hence, with all cards stacked against them in Parliament, there is very little guarantee that these three people will survive.
The biggest blow will come from the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) because the 2014 Provisional Constitution gives it the power to act as both the House of Representatives and Senate. Not to mention the fact that mostly comprises military members.
However, this might be the perfect time for the junta to take a step toward promoting reconciliation – a promise it has been making from the very start.
The case against Yingluck is related to the rice-pledging scheme – which was rife with corruption and caused massive losses to the country. Obviously, all sides are looking for someone to hold responsible for this.
Yingluck appeared to be the perfect candidate, because not only was she the leader of the last government, she is also the sister of fugitive ex-PM Thaksin, who has been convicted.
Somsak and Nikom, on the other hand, are only facing charges for violating the 2007 Constitution, which is defunct already. Impeaching them may not be the wisest decision, because the interim charter does not stipulate clearly what should be done in this case, which probably also explains why most NLA members are uncertain about their role in this case. Besides, these two have not been charged under a criminal law like Yingluck has.
Now, if the NLA does go ahead with impeaching the three, it will look more like a political agenda rather than fair justice.
Meanwhile, if the parliamentary system does get changed to a mixed-member proportional system ahead of the next elections, it would reduce Pheu Thai Party’s seats in Parliament, thus weakening the so-called “Thaksin regime”.
Now, if Yingluck is impeached, it would cost her a lot, because not only will she be banned form politics for five years, she would also have to face criminal charges.
For Pheu Thai opponents, though, all scenarios are positive because they may not see these three faces in the political arena any time soon.
