Finding source of new coronavirus critical to control situation, say medical experts

Many people infected with the virus have developed severe pneumonia symptoms in less than two months. The new virus has been found in 28 countries, with more than 30,000 infected in China and around the world, and it has taken more than 600 lives. 
Scientists who decoded the genetic material of 2019-nCoV have found that 88-96 per cent of the gene sequence was similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), a coronavirus that spread from bats in 2002. Sars infected more than 8,000 people in 17 countries and caused nearly 800 deaths. “Mers” or Middle Eastern Respiratory Disease, which also is a coronavirus, infected 2,500 people in 27 countries and caused 858 deaths.
Experts continue to guess how long the 2019-nCoV will continue, but according to data as of February 6, the death rate is still at “2 per cent”.
Prof Dr Amorn Leelarasamee, president of Medical Association of Thailand and a specialist in infectious diseases, assessed the trend of the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic according to four assumptions published in the Lancet medical journal. They are:
1 The first infected patient who showed up on December 1, 2019 contacted the virus by around the end of November before entering the infection stage. After questioning 41 victims, it was found that there were 13 people who had not gone to Wuhan city. This means these infected people might have come from other areas and there was a high chance of the virus spreading in the market and causing human-to-human transmission.
2 Flying animals, including bats, which have the 2019-nCoV virus, might not be infected but could be carriers. The spread of the virus might start when the butcher slaughters the virus carrier in front of the customer. A small molecule of infected blood is sprayed in the air, and the virus gets inhaled by the customer and passersby.
3 Flying animals, including bats, might fly over the Wuhan market and their droppings on other animals or humans then gets inhaled and causes the infection.
4 The infection might come from a bunch of bats living under the roof of a human house in Wuhan city. The bat droppings release the virus which are inhaled by people who then get infected. There are reports of infected people who did not go to the nearby market. Possibly bats from other provinces flew around and spread the virus.

“According to the four assumptions, it means that we have to find the real source of the virus as soon as possible before predicting the infection period. In my assessment there are four arguments:
1 If the government’s order of shutting off the city and the suspected area led to a positive response, it would have meant that we had control over the source of the virus. If the outcome leaned to this choice, the trend of infection would have clearly dropped within two months or the number of infections would have decreased. However, after China shut down the cities, the numbers continue to keep going up.
2 The source of the virus, such as for instance bats still flying and spreading the virus, has not been found. It would take at least nine months to stop a new infected patient in China alone, said the doctor.
“I want to suggest to China’s government to check the air for any new coronavirus. The investigation team needs to collect samples of air in the infected areas, residential areas and bat droppings on people’s houses to find the DNA of the spray then match it with the current epidemic virus. If it matches, the official can cleanse the source of infection,” Dr Amorn added.

Prof Dr Amorn added that the first animal-to-human transmission would be through inhalation of airborne droplets as that would have more viruses than those who “eat bats” or poultry with coronavirus because the virus would die from the heat during the cooking process.
The severity of this disease will more or less depend on the number of coronaviruses reaching the “lung tissue”, or how deeply they get embedded in the lungs. If the droplets are smaller than 2.5 microns with more than tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of the virus travelling through the nasal pharynx and deep into the lung tissue at the same time, it will cause pneumonia in many parts of the lungs at the same time, resulting in insufficient oxygen in the lungs, which could cause sudden respiratory failure.
More importantly the incubation period of this virus is as short as 2-4 days, so the body is unable to build immunity in time as white blood cells are unfamiliar with this infection. Most of the deaths are those of elderly people or chronic lung disease patients, while those who have recovered would have built up immunity.
Regarding the production of drugs or vaccines to prevent “2019-nCoV virus”, medical experts agree that it would be possible but no one knows if there would be a relapse of this deadly virus. A drug company has to invest hundreds of millions of dollars and it takes no less than one year to make the drugs, so they have to consider if it would be worth the investment.
However, the “Chinese government” has the money and many resources, and they may order production of such vaccine regardless of profits. “We probably have to wait with hope,” he said.