In its latest 'Asia Economics Quarterly' report, HSBC says despite unprecedented challenges, Việt Nam has overcome the pandemic crisis. With a population of more than 95 million, the country has managed to flatten the COVID-19 curve much sooner and keep the infection tally at about 1,400 thanks to swift and effective prevention efforts by State agencies.
Though the 2020 GDP growth of 2.91 per cent was the lowest in the last decade, it was still assessed as a big success and among the world’s highest considering the complicated developments of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflation decelerated from 3.9 per cent in the first three quarters to 1.5 per cent in November compared to the same period of 2019 thanks to normalised goods prices and declined oil prices.
HSBC researchers expressed their belief that Việt Nam would benefit from a tech-led recovery, sustained foreign direct investment inflow and many free trade agreements.
However, they still slightly revised the country’s 2021 growth forecast down to 7.6 per cent, from the previous estimate of 8.1 per cent, due to a prolonged recovery in the tourism industry.
HSBS says although the country is ready to outpace other nations in the region in 2021, there remain risks to its economic recovery.
Many obstacles still exist in the tourism sector, HSBC's report says, noting though the worst may have passed after the second quarter, tourism-related services like accommodation and transportation are still in a bleak situation due to cross-border travel restrictions.
The second wave of COVID-19 infections in late July was swiftly brought under control, but it could make the Government more prudent in reopening borders and attracting international visitors. A meaningful tourism recovery is unlikely in the time ahead until effective vaccines are available and there is a global integrated approach to international tourism, according to HSBC.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Việt Nam’s economy will strongly recover in 2021.
The IMF says transparency is a very important factor in Việt Nam’s success, and the multimedia approach has consolidated the people’s trust and ensured that the whole society abides by pandemic control measures.
In its World Economic League Table 2021, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says Viet Nam’s economy is expected to move to 19th position in 2035. — VNA/VNS
Published : January 09, 2021
By : Viet Nam News/ANN