Death march to 'reconciliation': Thaksin's missteps result in backlash

The last straw for those opposing the effort was government-aligned Pheu Thai MPs attempting to rush the so-called “reconciliation” bill through parliament a week early – after having completely reneged on a promise to hold public hearings.

The actions by the opposition both in and outside parliament were desperate and on the face of it, undemocratic. But the fact is, the issue of Thaksin’s amnesty is so emotional and volatile, and the ruling Pheu Thai party showed such complete disregard for the opposition’s legitimate concerns, trampling over their own promises for transparency in a mad rush to push the bill through, it is difficult to imagine a more civilised outcome.

But why did PT suddenly feel the need to rush the “reconciliation” bill so quickly and without any public hearings? The probable answer is that Thaksin, widely acknowledged to lead the government from abroad, is in a state of panic. During his address to red-shirt supporters on May 19, he urged them to effectively let go of grievances and move on. It was widely assumed the reason behind the speech was Thaksin had reached an understanding with the military and other key players that would facilitate his return. Thaksin urged supporters to “forgive” the powers-that-be and cause them no further trouble. PM Yingluck’s visit earlier that month to Prem, the red-shirt bogeyman and the very embodiment of the “elite”, was part of the new detente.

But many reds were unhappy with the Prem visit and subsequent calls by Thaksin to forgive and forget. Many began feeling alienated and used by the ex-PM, grumbling that the movement and its leader should part ways. Sombat Boongamnanong, a prominent red-shirt, called Thaksin ‘egotistic’ while headlines such as “Thaksin at odds with red shirts” and “Some red shirts feel it’s time to go it alone” implied a split was emerging. Crucially, many red shirts were ambivalent towards “reconciliation”, as they felt the resulting mass amnesty would deny them justice for the deaths of fellow protesters in 2010.

At the same time, the ruling party suffered unexpected defeats in elections in pro-Thaksin and red-shirt strongholds of Pathum Thani, Udon Thani and Chiang Rai, causing many to wonder whether the political tide was beginning to turn against him and his machine. After the fiasco in Pathum Thani, Thaksin openly pushed the defeated PT candidate to resign (once again revealing who’s the real master).

It seems the combination of electoral defeats and red-shirt discontent made Thaksin feel he had made a series of miscalculations. Behind the scenes, the former PM likely urged his PT operatives in parliament to speed up the amnesty push, as time and goodwill was running out. They followed his orders like good soldiers, come hell or high water, resulting in last week’s political explosion.

So what next? PT appears to be gearing up for another try to force the bill through; but the Democrats, PAD and other groups, heady with victory, have vowed to resist this. And now, the UDD have jumped in with their familiar fear mongering and threats of violence. As their leaders cannot incite red shirts to fight for “reconciliation” they do not support (it is likely many secretly support the Democrats and PAD derailing the process), core leaders Jatuporn and Natthawut have begun crying ‘coup’, claiming Democrats and PAD are looking to overthrow the government. These are lies. 

Whatever the methods were used last week, opposition has the right to resist what they perceive to be unjust legislation, and this does not equal an attempted overthrow. But as UDD can’t play the “reconciliation” card, they have to play on red-shirt fear of a government overthrow.

If red shirts pay heed to UDD propaganda and PT continues its efforts to ram the bill through, violence will certainly ensue – and the march to reconciliation will result, once again, in real deaths.

Thaksin, enraged and desperate to correct his missteps, is playing his hand – and his goal is clear. It is victory through amnesty, not “reconciliation”. But the irony is his proxy government continues to claim it is trying to bring the country together – apparently still not grasping that reconciliation, by its very definition, cannot be forced down your opponent’s throat. It can only be brought about by mutual consent – with all sides involved and on board. The lawmakers’ ability to grasp this basic truism is the key to any future peace in Thailand.

Bangkok Dave