Who’s afraid of Beijing imposing trade sanctions?
Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez’s remark that trade between the Philippines and China remained steady during the pendency of the West Philippine Sea case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) should be clarified based on trade records.
For perspective: Scarborough Shoal, a “submersible” reef subject to the movement of tides, was seized by China in early 2012. In January 2013, the Philippines filed a case in the PCA at The Hague, questioning Beijing’s “nine-dash” claims to practically the whole South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea. A 10th dash was added for Taiwan.
It is noteworthy that six (or 67 per cent) of the 10 dashes face our western shores from Palawan to Batanes. The PCA recently ruled that Beijing violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights to its exclusive economic zone, which stretches 200 kilometres out from our shores.
Some business groups said that trade relations with China had suffered slightly since the country filed the arbitration case. Let’s look into the numbers. Stats don’t lie.
Between 2010 and 2015, China’s commodity exports to the Philippines totaled $124 billion (Bt4.3 trillion) against the Philippines’ $39 billion. Needless to say, the balance of merchandise trading lopsidedly favoured China by $85 billion or twice as much as the Philippines’ exports for the period.
After the Philippines lodged the case in 2013, the record on China-to-Philippines trade export values should tell it all: $11.5 billion (2010); $14.2 billion (2011); $16.7 billion (2012); $19.9 billion (2013); $23.5 billion (2014); $26.7 billion (2015) – for an average of $18 billion yearly from 2010-2012 to $23.3 billion annually from 2013-2015.
On the other hand, the Philippines’ yearly commodity exports to China averaged $6 billion between 2010 and 2012 and $7 billion in 2013-2015. This shows that China’s exports to the Philippines were five times more than its imports from our country.
China should buy more bananas, pineapples, coconuts, and sugar byproducts to narrow the gap.
The Philippine Government should look into why China exports of pork meat and offal to Manila reached $24.2 million in 2015, while Philippine imports from China for the same category reached only $2.5 million.
So who’s afraid of Beijing imposing trade barriers? It’s business as usual with or without the Scarborough.
Manuel Q Bondad
Makati City
(From Philippine Daily Inquirer/ANN)
